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NL Free Pick – April 3rd 2018

Are Oddsmakers Setting the Bait With Colorado -105 vs San Diego

If you had adopted the ‘bet against San Diego‘ strategy through the first week of the MLB season congratulations – you’re 4-0 on the year. The Padres are winless on this young season despite playing all four games in front of their home crowd . The April 3rd NL free pick opponent is Colorado, who is 2-2 on the year. Tuesday night’s line is just COL -105 though. Should we hammer “anybody who plays the Padres” until San Diego can get a win? Is tonight the night?

Colorado Has the Offense Rolling

April 3rd NL free pick
Colorado has threat after threat on offense including 2B DJ LeMahieu

Through four games this year the Rockies have scored 19 runs – and they haven’t even played at Coors Field yet. Those numbers include a 7-4 series opening win against the Padres last night in which Colorado belted out 12 hits. Three of those came off the bat of Charlie Blackmon who had two doubles and a HR – his fourth long ball the past three games. Blackmon has hit .278 with a HR against tonight’s San Diego starter Tyson Ross. DJ LeMahieu should stay hot (2-4, HR last night) as he has hit .312 in 16 career appearances vs Ross. Nolan Arenado is a huge threat too with 2HR in 22 AB against the San Diego starter.

If the Colorado offense gets going in the April 3rd NL free pick, it’s going to be up to LH Kyle Freeland to shut down the San Diego batters. Freeland allowed just 3 hits in his first ever start at Petco last May 4th. He did get the loss in a relief appearance there later in the season though (0.1 IP, 1ER). Freeland made 4 appearances against the Padres last year, allowing 8ER in 13.1 IP (5.40 ERA). This year’s San Diego batters have a .333 average against Freeland – could this be the night Padres fans?

Does Ross Get Comfortable Coming Back to San Diego?

April 3rd NL free pick
Tyson Ross is back with his old team and supposedly healthy. Does he regain his form?

Also making his 2018 debut in the April 3rd NL free pick is San Diego starter Tyson Ross. Things didn’t go so well in Texas in 2017 as the right hander had a 7.71 ERA in 12 games. Still Ross was battling injuries and is said to be fully healthy as he returns to pitch for San Diego, a team in which he posted a 3.16 ERA over 3+ seasons. Ross has his work cut out for him tonight against a steadfast Rockies team. San Diego manager Andy Green just needs a pitcher who can limit the opponent ‘somewhat’ as the Padres have allowed 22 runs in the last three games.

The Padres offense may have to prep for a shootout tonight even though oddsmakers have set the total at only 8. They may have the propensity to do that as Eric Hosmer (.375) and Freddy Galvis (.357) are both off to hot starts. San Diego’s 5 team HRs are 12th in the majors even though they’ve played every game at Petco thus far.

April 3rd NL Free Pick Betting

To be honest the line of Colorado -105 seems like a trap but if that’s the case ‘only’ 62% of the public are taking the bait. A wager that does have great potential tonight is on the total. Colorado is stacked on offense and are hitting the ball well. San Diego’s Ross is a huge unknown if he’s really healthy but the Padres offense has shown the ability to put up solid numbers against Colorado’s Freeland. The total seems low at 8 – which may be the real trap – but we’ll take our chances.

Free Pick: Colorado Rockies / San Diego Padres ‘over’ 8.

 

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Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor.

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