The Miami Dolphins host the New York Jets at Hard Rock Stadium on Monday, Sep 29, 2025. Kickoff is 7:15 PM ET in Miami Gardens, Fla. Both teams enter 0-3 and need a win to steady the season.
The Jets beat Miami 32-20 on Jan 5, 2025, but Miami has won 14 of the past 18 meetings. Against the spread, New York is 2-1 and Miami is 1-2. Books list Miami -2.5 with a total around 44.5.
Dolphins Preview – Can the Defense Settle Down?
Miami is last in scoring defense at 32.3 points per game and sits 26th in total defense at 370.3 yards per game. Opponents are completing 78.7% of passes and gaining 6.3 yards per play. The defense also has just 2.0 sacks per game.
On offense the Dolphins are at 18.7 points per game. Tua Tagovailoa has five touchdowns and four picks on 89 attempts. Miami is 2-1 to the Over, but the offense has not sustained drives for four quarters.
The secondary is thin with Storm Duck and Jason Marshall Jr. out and Ethan Bonner questionable. Jaylen Waddle returned to full practice late in the week, which helps the pass game. Mike McDaniel said Darren Waller is ready after a hip issue kept him out to start the season.
Jets Preview – Can the Run Game Carry the Load?
New York averages 271.7 yards per game, which ranks 26th. The run game is the bright spot at 127.0 yards per game, 12th in the league. The pass game sits at 144.7 yards per game, which is 31st.
Justin Fields cleared concussion protocol and will start after missing time in Week 2. Fields and Tyrod Taylor have combined for four touchdowns and one interception. The Jets scored 21 fourth-quarter points in last week’s 29-27 loss at Tampa Bay.
Defense has given up 31.0 points per game, tied for 28th, and 340.3 yards per game. Key injuries include Jermaine Johnson II and Jarvis Brownlee Jr. out, with Tony Adams and Kene Nwangwu on the report. The Jets are 2-1 ATS and 2-1 to the Over, with an 8-2 Over mark in their last 10.
Betting Prediction
Covers’ model projects Miami 22.8 to New York 19.5 and leans to the Under. The market sits at Miami -2.5 with a total near 44.5, which lines up with a one-score result. Miami’s defense has leaked yards, but New York’s pass game has not hit chunk plays.
Miami’s home field and a cleaner turnover profile with Tua give a small edge. If Waddle and Waller are full go, short passing should help protect the defense. My score is Dolphins 23, Jets 20, which backs Miami and the Under.
Pick: Dolphins -2.5 and Under 44.5
This should be a fun game. Neither team has won a game this season, but both are hungry to win. Primetime is going to get some good football, and this is one of them. Enjoy the game!
