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NFL Week 7 Browns at Bengals Betting Preview

Bounce Back Game for Mayfield and Cleveland

The points look tempting heading into week 7 Browns at Bengals betting. Cincinnati (1-4) is getting 3.5 points at home on Sunday afternoon against a Cleveland team that was humiliated 38-7 last week against Pittsburgh. The Browns are 4-2 however, and do have the best rushing offense in the league against the Bengals’ 5th worst run defense.

Cleveland had a four game win streak snapped last week at Heinz Field, and one of those victories was a 35-30 home win over Cincinnati as -6 point favorites in week two. The Bengals have shown improvement since that game however, racing out to a 21-0 lead against the Colts last week, before melting down in the 2nd half in a 31-27 loss as +7.5 underdogs. Sunday’s betting total seems low at 50.5.

Is Mayfield Healthy?

Cincinnati seems to have the edge in this battle of former #1 draft pick QB’s. Baker Mayfield has the experience advantage, but he doesn’t look healthy (Prob-chest), especially after last week’s 10/18, 119 yard, 1 TD / 2 INT performance against the Steelers. Mayfield did look good in the week 2 matchup against Cincinnati though, going 16/23 with 2 TD and an INT.

One big loss Cleveland faces in week 7 Browns at Bengals betting is the injury to Nick Chubb (out-knee). Chubb tore things up on the ground in the first game against Cincinnati, running 22 times for 124 yards and 2 TD. The Browns ran for 307 yards vs. Dallas with Chubb in the lineup, but Kareem Hunt has just 72 and 40 rush yards the last two as the feature back.

The Bengals run defense is 27th in the league, but have looked good the last few weeks, holding Jacksonville to 89 yards on the ground, Baltimore to 161, and Indianapolis to 59 rushing yards a week ago. Can Mayfield be trusted to lead Cleveland on the road and banged up, if the Browns can’t get a running game going?

Bengals Try to Finish

Cincinnati has a bitter takeaway from last week’s loss to the Colts. On one hand, going up 21-0 on one of the league’s better defense is something to build on, but at the same time being outscored 31-6 the rest of the game is a bit concerning. The Bengals allowed a 371 yard, 3 TD performance to Philip Rivers, in just his second 100+ QB rating of the season.

The Bengals are doing some things well though, providing optimism with the +3.5 points. Joe Burrow has thrown for 300+ yards in four of the last five, and that has opened up things for the running game that compiled 200+ yards on the ground in the 33-25 win over Jacksonville as -1 point favorites the last time Cincinnati played at home. The rushing attack does take a hit with the injury to Joe Mixon, who left the Colts game after hurting his foot.

Burrow threw for 301 yards in the first game against Cleveland, but it took him 61 attempts to get there. Cleveland had 3 sacks in the first meeting, and the Ravens got to Burrow 7 times two weeks ago. The Browns defense has actually been solid the last two weeks, holding Pittsburgh to a respectable 129 rush yards and just 148 pass yards. The Colts ran the ball 18 times for just 68 yards against Cleveland two weeks ago.

Week 7 Browns at Bengals Betting Free Pick

Cleveland has struggled when Mayfield turns the ball over, but Burrow will give it right back with an INT in three straight games. These two teams each put up 30+ points in the first meeting, and this QB matchup could prove to be a high scoring contest every time they meet.
Cleveland 34 – Cincinnati 31

Free Pick: Over 50.5

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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