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NFL Week 4 Titans at Falcons Free Pick

Is Atlanta Just a Different Team at Home?

Mercedes-Benz Stadium is the home for the NFL week 4 Titans at Falcons free pick. That’s a good thing for Atlanta fans as the team looked much better in their only home game of the season compared to their two losses on the road. Tennessee has also looked like a much different team, dropping two low scoring games after an impressive season opening win in Cleveland. The hook looms large in this one with Atlanta favored by -3.5 and the total seems a bit on the high side at 46.5.

Titans Playing Good Defense, But Where’s the Offense?

NFL week 4 Titans at Falcons free pick
Henry needs to get the running game going on Sunday.

Tennessee looked like they had a viable offense for the 2019 campaign after week one, beating the Browns 43-13 on the road as +5.5 favorites. Marcus Mariota was just 14/24 in that game but he also threw 3 TD to 0 INT. Since then however, the Titans have dropped a 17-19 game at home vs. the Colts and last week’s 7-20 defeat in Jacksonville.

There are two takeaways from Tennessee’s last two losses. The first is that their offense has sputtered averaging just 12 ppg the last two. Atlanta has the #7 total yard defense in the league and are especially good against the pass allowing just 211.3 ypg. Derrick Henry had 17 carries for just 44 yards last week against Jacksonville but he’ll have to get the Tennessee running game going in the NFL week 4 Titans at Falcons free pick.

The other thing to note about Tennessee this season is that they are playing really good defense. The Titans picked off Baker Mayfield three times in the opener, held the Colts to 121 passing yards in week two, and limited Jacksonville to 204 passing and 88 rushing yards a week ago. The Titans are #4 vs. the pass after three weeks which is a huge advantage vs. the Falcons and their vaunted aerial show.

Falcons Looking For Offensive Breakthrough

NFL week 4 Titans at Falcons free pick
Ryan has had some ups and downs this season.

Atlanta comes into the NFL week 4 Titans at Falcons free pick with a 1-2 record but with an impressive 24-20 win over Philadelphia in their only home game thus far. The Falcons were bowled over by Dalvin Cook and the Vikings running game in week one and got behind 20-3 at the half before losing 24-27 at Indianapolis last week.

Atlanta is giving up a lot of points through three games as their 25 ppg yielded is 21st in the league. After allowing 172 yards rushing to the Vikings, the Falcons run defense has buckled down though holding the Eagles to 49 and the Colts to 79 yards rushing. Atlanta is also 8th against the pass so don’t expect much from Mariota in this one.

This game ultimately comes down to if Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense can move the ball against a stout Titans unit. Ryan was 27/43 for 320 yards and 3 TD in his only home game this season, but also threw three INT’s. Ryan has 6 picks already this season. Atlanta does have the talent outside to put up with the tough Tennessee secondary though. Julio Jones has 4 TD catches in 3 games and Calvin Ridley had 8 grabs for 105 at home vs. the Eagles.

NFL Week 4 Titans at Falcons Free Pick

This feels like one of those games that the Titans are supposed to lose yet they come out and protect the QB, run the ball, and play great defense. It’s the reason Tennessee fans are so frustrated with their team. The Falcons have virtually no running game, which is going to put a lot of pressure on Ryan against a great secondary.

Pick: Tennessee Titans +3.5

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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