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NFL Week 16 Free Pick: Packers at Jets

It’s the weekend before Christmas and the Green Bay Packers are playing a game that doesn’t matter – with a ‘healthy’ Aaron Rodgers. That’s something that just hasn’t been said during the #12 era. Either way Green Bay takes their 0-7 road record to MetLife to face the New York Jets in the NFL week 16 free pick. The Pack are still getting oddsmaker love as -3 road favorites but are the Jets the better play?

Does Green Bay Just Want This Nightmare Season to Be Over?

NFL week 16 free pick
Will Matthews and the GB defense continue to struggle on the road?

It’s been a rough year in Lambeau Land as Green Bay heads towards the offseason somewhere in limbo between rebuilding and reloading. The Packers will have to find a new coach in the upcoming weeks and you have to wonder just how motivated the team is going to be heading out East. Green Bay has dropped 6 of 8 and for once it’s been their offense and not the defense taking the blame. The Packers have scored 17 points or less in 4 of 7. That being said Aaron Rodgers and Co. still have the #8 passing attack in the league up against the Jets 22nd ranked defense.

Green Bay’s defense could actually tee off in the NFL week 16 free pick against the Jets offense that is ranked 30th in the league. That defense is decidedly better at home however where they’ve limited 4 of the last 5 opponents to 20 points or less. When Green Bay goes on the road they’ve surrendered 24+ points in all seven games. Is today’s O/U of 47.5 looking like a solid ‘over’ play due to that fact?

Jets Finish Strong at Home?

Darnold should have some success against the Green Bay defense.

It’s been another weird season for the Jets. They seem to have found a talented young QB of the future in Sam Darnold but at the same time New York too is probably looking for a new coach sooner rather than later. The Jets have lost 7 of 8 but have some positives to build on the last two weeks. They dropped a very close contest 22-29 to Houston last week. Prior to that New York scored a road win in Buffalo and only lost by 4 at Tennessee. Darnold had his third game of a 100+ QB rating vs. the tough Texans defense and should be able to carve up Green Bay this afternoon.

Most bettors are thinking that for the Jets to win it will have to be in a shootout. New York has allowed 26+ points in 4 of the last 5 but the major question is how healthy is Rodgers? The Texans had just 47 rush yards last week plus the Jets got to Deshaun Watson six times. Can New York apply the pressure to get Rodgers out of the game?

NFL Week 16 Free Pick Betting

This game could go either way with the Jets playing at home but against Aaron Rodgers who can absolutely shred the New York defense. That’s with a healthy Rodgers however and New York showed the ability to get pressure on a mobile QB last week. Darnold plays well and the Jets continue to add to Green Bay’s road woes.

NFL Free Pick: New York Jets +3

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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