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NFL Week 15 Saturday Free Pick

The AFC West is On the Line as Los Angeles Takes on Kansas City

One of the top games of week 15 comes early as the Chargers meet up with the Chiefs on Saturday night. LA is largely considered one of the hottest teams in the league after winning 7 of their last 9 games. KC got back on track last week with a win over Oakland, but they had lost 6 of 7 games prior. In the 12/16 NFL free pick, is the Kansas City turnaround sustained or do the Chargers continue their recent surge?

Oddsmakers opened this game at KC-1 at home but bettors have moved that line to LAC -1. The 7-6 Chiefs are great at home this year (4-2) and famously especially in December. The 7-6 Chargers are 3-3 on the road this season but will be the benefactors of some unseasonably warm Winter weather with game time temps expected to be a balmy 49 degrees.

Is Los Angeles a Trap Road Bet?

12/16 NFL free pick
If crowd noise is a problem the Chargers could opt for a heavy dose of Melvin Gordon.

The line has moved in the Chargers favor despite the fact that bettors are split with about 52% liking the Chiefs. Los Angeles is definitely trending in the right direction having won four in a row. It should be noted that three of those games were at home however. That being said the Chargers are 4-1-1 ATS their last six road games but also 4-1 ATS their last five in Kansas City. Los Angeles is just 1-5 ATS their last six games in December – the time of year they typically fall apart.

It’s been both sides of the ball that have been fueling the Chargers resurgence after an 0-4 start. LA has allowed 13 points or less in three straight games while also scoring 28+ in three of the past four. The Chargers offense is 5th in the league in total yards including 3rd in the passing game. The Chiefs might be in trouble for the 12/16 NFL free pick with the #28 defense in both total yards allowed and passing yards given up while boasting the third worst rush defense in the league as well.

Is KC a No-Brainer at Home?

12/16 NFL free pick
The Chiefs defense would love nothing more than to get to Rivers early – and often.

Kansas City has suffered two home losses this season, 13-19 against Pittsburgh and 10-16 against Buffalo. In their last game, the Chiefs snapped a four game losing streak with a 26-15 win over Oakland. Rather than the win, it was the losing streak that was most telling as it included a 9-12 loss to the Giants and a 31-38 defeat to the Jets.

The Chiefs defense is at least showing some signs of life as they’ve given up 16 points or less in three of the past four games. Then again that was against the 19th, 26th, and 29th ranked offenses in the NFL. This means the Chargers are probably going to get there’s Saturday – so can the Chiefs match? KC is 6th in total yards, 7th in points scored, 8th in passing, and 12th in rushing. The Chargers have a solid ‘D’ ranking 10th in total yards and #3 against the pass. Los Angeles also allows the 2nd fewest points in the NFL this season. Can the KC 8-1 ATS record in their last 9 vs the AFC West step up again in the 12/16 NFL free pick?

12/16 NFL Free Pick – Betting

The Chiefs were 24-10 winners in week three at Los Angeles. Kareem Hunt ran for 172 yards for Kansas City in that game and the rookie looked like he could regain his early season status with 116 yards and a TD in last week’s win. The biggest difference maker in this contest could be the Saturday night Arrowhead Stadium crowd. In what is essentially a playoff for the AFC West, expect the Chiefs faithful to make life a mess for Philip Rivers and the Chargers offense.

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs +1

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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