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NFL Week 15 Free Pick: Cowboys at Colts

Arguably the Game of the Day When Dallas Visits Indianapolis

Oddsmakers have made the Colts -3 point favorites when they host the Dallas Cowboys in the NFL week 15 free pick. You could make a case for both teams in this contest. On one hand Dallas has rattled off five wins in a row with two of those coming on the road. The Cowboys are still just 2-4 away from Jerry’s World this season though. Indy is fighting for their playoff lives and have won 6 of 7. A strength of the Cowboys is their defense, and you can’t ignore how bad the Colts looked against another solid defensive unit two weeks ago as they lost 0-6 to Jacksonville.

Can Dallas Get the Running Game Going Today?

NFL week 15 free pick
Dak Prescott is thanking his stars that the Cowboys acquired Amari Cooper

The arrival of Amari Cooper via trade before week 9 has definitely changed the dynamic of the Cowboys offense. Cooper hauled in 10 catches for 217 yards and 3TD last week – his 2nd 180+ game in the last three weeks. Even so the key to Dallas’ offensive success moving forward towards the postseason has to be a stable running game. Ezekiel Elliott’s production has increased now that Dallas has a viable passing game and he’s rushed for 113+ in 4 of the last 5. The Colts are 8th in the NFL vs. the rush and 11th in total yards allowed so the ground game may be tough to get going for the Cowboys in the NFL week 15 free pick. At the very least Dak Prescott has offensive options though.

The luxury that Dallas coach Jason Garrett has today is that his offense might not have to be super productive to get the win. That’s because the Cowboys defense has evolved into one of the best in the league this year. Dallas has held 3 of the last 5 opponents to 20 points or less and are top 5 in total yards, rush yards, and points. Something to note is that the Cowboys are on the road for the first time in 3 weeks today – will that defensive domination travel?

Colts Aim for Another Strong Offensive Performance

NFL week 15 free pick
Is Hilton the x-factor that makes the Colts -3 a solid play today?

Indianapolis has developed a top 10 offense this season with the return of Andrew Luck. The Colts are 8th in the NFL in total yards and points scored. Despite that success, they are fairly one-dimensional on that side of the ball as the Colts running game is just 24th in rushing yards per game. The Cowboys held the Eagles to 222 passing yards last week and New Orleans had just 111 the week before. Both of those games were in Dallas however. Luck threw for almost 400 vs. a tough Houston defense last week and T.Y Hilton was unguardable vs. the Texans with 9 catches for 199 yards. Repeat performance today?

 

Lost in the success of the Colts passing game this season is the fact that their defense is under-the-radar one of the best in the league this season. Indianapolis is especially solid against the run giving up just 102 ypg on the ground this season. In the last month the Colts have held Jacksonville to barely over 200 total yards and the Titans 263. Granted Dallas is a much more complete offense than those two teams but the Colts defense should play downhill at home.

NFL Week 15 Free Pick Betting

Dallas is 5-0 ATS their last five but that trend is going to be tough to keep going at Indy today. Then again, maybe this Cowboys team is a legit Super Bowl contender. You can’t forget this is a Colts team that started off the season 1-5. With the Indianapolis offense being so one-dimensional and the Dallas defense playing with so much momentum right now taking the points isn’t a bad deal.

NFL Free Pick: Dallas Cowboys +3

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Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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