Arizona seems like a strange home underdog in the Rams at Cardinals pick considering just one game separates the two teams in the NFC West. L.A. is just 3-3 on the road this season, but has won six straight in this series. The Rams are also coming off a 23-20 home loss to San Francisco last week as -5 point favorites.
How bad do oddsmakers view the Cardinals to make them +2.5 home underdogs on Sunday afternoon? Arizona is in a bit of a free fall with losses in three of their last four games, but each one of those contests were decided by one score or less. This crucial conference matchup seems like it could come down to the last possession again, is taking the points the right route to go?
Can Rams Offense Get Right?
The Rams at Cardinals pick would seem like it’s going to be an offensive show, but the betting total is kind of on the low side at 48.5. That could be due largely in part to L.A.’s offensive struggles as of late, being held to 20 points or less in three of their last six games. Nothing has been a cure for the Rams like a meeting with Arizona though, as L.A. has put up 30+ in six straight vs. Arizona.
Los Angeles didn’t do much on the offensive side of the football in their last second loss to the 49ers last week. QB Jared Goff did more harm than good, going just 19/31 for 198 yards and 2 INT while also losing a fumble. The Rams did run 28 times for 126 yards, and will be up against the Cardinals’ #22 ranked rush defense.
The Rams have value even if their offense struggles, because L.A. also has one of the best defenses in the league, ranking 2nd in total yards allowed and 3rd vs. the pass and 4th against the run. L.A. did allow 112 on the ground to San Francisco last week as well as a 24/35, 252 yard performance to Nick Mullens.
Have Teams Figured Out Murray?
Arizona has the #4 ranked rushing attack in the NFL, but that’s largely helped out when Kyler Murray gets loose. Teams have started to focus more on Murray during the RPO’s, and as a result he has just 46 yards rushing total the last two weeks on just 10 attempts. Murray has a QB rating under 90 in two of the last three games.
The Murray to Deandre Hopkins Hail Mary against Buffalo is the only play separating the Cardinals from a 4-game losing streak. They have played well in losses at New England (20-17 as -1 favorites), at Seattle (28-21, +3), and vs. (Miami 34-31, -6), but those defeats have dropped the Cardinals to the 7 seed in the playoff picture, just a game ahead of Minnesota, Chicago, and San Francisco heading into week 13.
Free Rams at Cardinals Pick
Los Angeles is a weird favorite here, which actually means the Rams have a great chance of going on the road and getting this win. 54% of the public are on L.A., and Murray will also play through a right shoulder injury, which isn’t ideal against Aaron Donald and the Rams defense.
Rams 31 – Cardinals 23
Free Pick: Rams -2.5