Las Vegas is a -3 favorite despite going on the road for an early game in the Raiders at Falcons pick for the NFL’s week 12 schedule. That’s a somewhat surprising line, but the Raiders did play Kansas City well again last week before ultimately falling 35-31 as +7.5 underdogs, snapping a 3-game win streak.
Atlanta looked bad last week in a 24-9 loss to the Saints but that’s an improving New Orleans defense and there also wasn’t much to game plan for with Taysom Hill making his first start at QB for Sean Payton’s squad. The Falcons had won three of four prior, with their only loss being to Detroit by a point. Atlanta is just 1-4 at home this season however.
Raiders Run Game Too Much?
It will be interesting to see how the Raiders at Falcons pick plays out because teams have had success against Atlanta’s #31 ranked pass defense but the M.O. for Las Vegas is to run the ball with 134.2 yards/game (7th). The Saints scampered for 166 rushing yards last week against Atlanta, so it’s looking like another big day for the Raiders’ Josh Jacobs.
Jacobs did have a rushing TD last week, but was largely corralled by the Chiefs with just 55 yards on 17 carries. Jacobs had posted 100+ yard outings in two of three games prior. If the Raiders do opt to rely more on the passing game, Derek Carr is coming off one of his better games of the season throwing for 275 yards and 3 TD vs. Kansas City.
Carr had still posted a QB rating of under 100 in three of the four games prior to the meeting with the Chiefs. That being said, New Orleans’ Taysom Hill was an incredibly efficient 18/23 passing last week vs. the Falcons for 233 yards and that was in his first NFL start.
Can Ryan Lead a Rebound Game for Atlanta?
Atlanta coach Raheem Morris is hoping that last week’s performance from the Atlanta offense was a once-off and not a sign of things to come. New Orleans has now held three straight opponents to 13 points or less, and the Falcons were battered with Matt Ryan going 19/37 with two INTs and Atlanta tallying just 52 yards rushing.
Ryan was under duress a majority of the game vs. the Saints, getting sacked 8 times. The good news is that the Raiders have the second fewest sacks in the NFL, but Atlanta is also likely without a huge weapon in Julio Jones, who is not expected to play due to a hamstring injury.
Even without Jones, Atlanta is up against a Raiders defense that did allow 460 yards to the Chiefs last week. Tampa Bay also hung 45 points on Las Vegas a few weeks ago behind a big day through the air from Tom Brady so there are reasons to be optimistic for Atlanta’s #2 passing offense in the league.
Free Raiders at Falcons Pick
Las Vegas is 4-1 on the road this season, but they may come out flat after the late loss to the Chiefs last Sunday night and playing going away for the first time since November 8th. Atlanta suffers a blow with Jones likely out, but should have a much better game plan than the one that got Ryan hit 11 times last week.
Falcons 23 – Raiders 21
Free Pick: Atlanta +3