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NFL Week 12 Bears at Packers Pick and Betting Preview

Trubisky's Return Help or Hurt Chicago?

A rivalry game closes out the NFL week 12 Sunday card as the Bears at Packers pick goes down from Lambeau Field. This heated matchup has mostly existed in name only however, with Green Bay winning 7 of the last 8 including 21-13 at home last December.

Chicago welcomes an old face back in this meeting as Mitch Trubisky is once again the starting QB for the Bears. Green Bay is a -8 point favorite in this matchup, but that number has been a pus or less in 3 of the last 5 tilts between these two at Lambeau. Chicago is on a 4-game losing streak, any reason to think they got off that skid here?

Trubisky’s Mobility Helps Bears

The Bears started the season 2-0 under Trubisky, but he got the yank in a week 3 comeback win over the Falcons and has played just one snap since – suffering a shoulder injury on the play. Granted the Bears were probably undefeated in spite of Trubisky more than because of him to start the year as the QB was completing less than 60% of his passes and had 3 TD but 3 INT in his last two starts.

Sometimes a step back does help a QB a bit, and one big advantage Trubisky has is that he’s more mobile than Nick Foles while playing behind a very banged up offensive line. Green Bay doesn’t get an exorbitant amount of pressure though, ranking 18th in yards/game but the Bears still have some work to do.

The good news for Trubisky is that he really shouldn’t feel any pressure heading into the Bears at Packers pick. Chicago owns the 31st ranked offense in the NFL, dead last in rushing, and 2nd worst in points scored. Trubisky is playing the last couple games on his rookie contract and can impress some teams (Chicago or elsewhere) if he can lead the Bears to a playoff berth. The last three losses by Matt Nagy’s team have all been by less than one score.

Green Bay Not (Quite) Invincible

It’s definitely a tale of two offenses for Sunday night’s meeting as Green Bay has the #6 total yard unit in the league with the #5 passing attack while also averaging 30.8 points per game. Chicago’s high point tally of the year is 30 points in the comeback win in week 3 over Atlanta and have only broken 20 points once in the last four games.

The Packers are just 2-2 in the month of November however and come into Sunday’s meeting off a 34-31 loss to Indianapolis in which they scored just 3 points in the second half. Aaron Rodgers has been his usual great self since the Tampa Bay loss, throwing 16 TD the last five games but he has also thrown an INT in two straight.

Green Bay can have their struggles when they meet up with a good defense like they did in the 2nd half last week vs. Indianapolis or when they had just 201 total yards vs. Tampa Bay. The Bears still have a very good defense ranking 5th in the league in points allowed as well. Chicago has held the top two rushers in the NFL, Dalvin Cook (30 carries for 96 yards) and Derrick Henry (21-68) in check the last two weeks.

Free Bears at Packers Pick

The Bears have held Green Bay to 24 points or less in five straight games, and if that holds up the Chicago offense doesn’t need to do a ton to cover the 8 points. Chicago may even get a boost with the return of Trubisky, a well-liked player who can also extend plays with his legs. It might not be enough for the win, but #10 should at least keep things close.
Bears 20 – Packers 23

Free Pick: Bears +8

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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