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NFL Week 10 Thursday Night Football Free Pick: Total 49

Oddsmakers Expecting Offense When Chargers Visit Raiders

Two jet-setting teams get together in the NFL week 10 Thursday night football free pick. The Raiders are already relocating to Vegas in 2020, but just recently talks of the Chargers being the first London franchise have arisen. Either way, the two squads are both California teams for this meeting, one in which oddsmakers are expecting a lot of points setting the total at 49. That seems like a doable number for Oakland, but the LAC offense has largely been down this year. It’s a strange line especially since the Chargers are -1 favorites.

Chargers Finding a Running Game?

NFL week 10 Thursday night football free pick
Gordon scored twice vs. Green Bay for just his 3rd TD in 5 games.

LA has rattled off two straight wins, a victory that Chicago all but handed too them and a ‘punch in the mouth’ over an admittedly distracted Green Bay squad. The Packers win was more impressive with the Chargers winning 26-11, especially since for the first time in a long time L.A showed a semblance of a running game. Melvin Gordon III and Austin Ekeler combined for 150 yards on the ground vs. Green Bay.

Does L.A’s newfound success in the running game lead them to churning out the clock and making the NFL week 10 Thursday night football free pick a lower scoring affair? Oakland is stout against the run (92.5 yards per game). Then again, the Raiders success vs. the ground game may be because teams simply pass on them at will as Oakland’s 299.9 passing yards per game allowed ranks last in the league. Phillip Rivers has thrown for 290+ in 3 of the last 4 which swings the pendulum towards a higher scoring game.

One reason that the total of 49 for this one still seems a bit on the higher side is because of the Chargers defense. This is a unit that held Aaron Rodgers to 161 yards passing on 35 attempts last week. Green Bay also had just 11 carries for 45 yards on the ground – an important stat vs. Oakland’s impressive young running game. The Chargers have now allowed 20 points or less in 4 of the last 6.

Raiders Aiming to Run the Ball Thursday?

NFL week 10 Thursday night football free pick
Jacobs has been everything Oakland has needed him to be in the ground game.

Oakland is going to want to churn the rock in the NFL week 10 Thursday night football free pick. The Raiders have the #6 rushing attack in the league as Josh Jacobs has ran for 120+ yards in 3 of the last 4. L.A. has a great secondary, but where they are vulnerable is against the rush ranking 20th in the NFL allowing 114.1 yards per game. The Chargers are 25th vs. the run in DVOA.

Jacobs should be able to have his way against a depleted L.A. defense. It’s another reason the Chargers being favored seems kind of strange as DT’s Justin Jones and Brandon Mebane as well as LB Denzel Perryman could all be game-time-decisions. Missing some or all of those defenders should open up the Raiders passing game too though. It gives Oakland the ability to help on Joey Bosa who has 5.5 sacks the last three games. Derek Carr has 280+ passing yards in three straight games with 7 TD to 1 INT over that span.

NFL Week 10 Thursday Night Football Free Pick: Total 49

The Raiders defense is what scares you in this one if betting on the under. Oakland has allowed 24+ points in 6 of 8 games this season. Matthew Stafford (406, 3TD), Deshaun Watson (279, 3TD), and Rodgers (429, 5TD) have all put up huge numbers vs. the Raiders passing defense in the last three games. The scores last year though were a 26-10 Chargers win in Oakland and a 20-6 victory later in the year at home. The lower scoring trend should continue with such a high total,the familiarity between the two, and the fact that both teams will try to run the ball.

Pick: Chargers / Raiders *Under* 49

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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