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NFL Week 10 Bills at Browns Free Pick

Should Embattled Cleveland Even Be Favored Here?

If you want to bask in the preseason hype, you better be prepared to face criticism if your season doesn’t meet certain standards. That’s exactly what Cleveland is facing ahead of the NFL week 10 Bills at Browns free pick. Buffalo has seamlessly flew under the radar this year sitting in New England’s shadow in the AFC East en route to a 6-2 record. It’s where Cleveland would like to be, yet the hype train continues as the Browns are -3 home favorites Sunday.

A Lot of People Like the Bills Here

NFL week 10 Bills at Browns free pick
Allen has the Bills playing with some nice momentum right now.

Buffalo has shown the signs of being a good team – mainly the fact that they seem to be getting better as the year progresses. The Bills dodged some bullets early in the year like in a 17-16 win vs. the Jets, 21-17 at home vs. Cincinnati, and 14-7 at Tennessee. Buffalo has now notched a 10 point and a 15 point win over their last 3 weeks though.

About those last two wins though – they came against Miami and Washington which are not exactly NFL elite. When you throw in those victories over the Jets, Giants, Bengals, and Titans it’s clear that Buffalo has had a pretty easy go of it. Is Buffalo’s #3 defense in total yards, passing yards, and total points given up because they are good – or because the opponents have been bad?

Regardless of the quality of opponents, Buffalo is in a great spot in the NFL week 10 Bills at Browns free pick because it’s not like Cleveland is good. The Browns have lost all 3 home games this season and have a defense that is 30th in the league in rushing yards allowed. The Bills rushing game is their specialty, going for 129.4 ypg. Devin Singletary had a breakout game with 95 yards and a TD last week vs. the Redskins and QB Josh Allen is a threat on the ground as well with 4 rushing scores. Allen also hasn’t turned the ball over in the air in the last three weeks.

Can Browns Pull It Together As Favorites?

NFL week 10 Bills at Browns free pick
Will Chubb be fresh – or out of rhythm – as Hunt is activated for Cleveland Sunday?

Cleveland is listed at -3 in the NFL week 11 Bills at Browns free pick despite losing 4 in a row. The Browns can beat anybody – and look good doing it – as evidenced by their 40-25 win in Baltimore in week four. It’s just that games like that seem to be too few and too far between for Cleveland fans.

Since that 40 point outburst in Baltimore, the Cleveland offense has been held to less than 20 points in 3 of 4 games. They may get a boost on Sunday as Kareem Hunt comes off the suspension list. Then again, more mouths to feed may actually hinder the rhythm of Nick Chubb who has rushed for 120+ in 2 of the last 3. O’dell Beckham, Jr. is disgruntled in the passing game as usual, but it’s going to be hard to feed him as he’s battling a groin injury. The mustached man Baker Mayfield had 3 INTs in his last home game in week 6 vs. Seattle.

The Cleveland defense has also allowed at least 24 points in 5 straight games. Buffalo has been held to 14 or less in 3 of their last 5 though. The total 41 in this one relies on the question of whether the Browns can exploit a Bills defense that has looked good – but have they looked good because of the (lack of) quality of opponent.

NFL Week 10 Bills at Browns Free Pick

Cleveland should be able to get their offense going on Sunday. The addition of Hunt and the sense of urgency to get the ball to Beckham – yet simplify the offense should do good things for the Browns. the thing is, Buffalo will get theirs too though. The Bills will be able to run the ball, which should open up some things against the Cleveland secondary.

Pick: Bills / Browns *Over* 41

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Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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