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NFL Saturday: Week 15 AFC Free Pick Texans at Jets

New York Getting Just a TD at Home vs. Houston

At first glance the line in the NFL week 15 Saturday free pick seems a bit low with the Texans -7 at New York. Yes a TD is a lot to give on the road, but Houston has gone 4-2 going away this season. The line for the Saturday 4:30 PM ET is very much ‘what have you done for me lately.’ New York looks a bit better after a 27-23 win in Buffalo last week while the Texans lost 21-24 at home to the Colts. Do bettors have short memories in this one or was last week an indication of what these teams have to offer?

Texans Look to Avoid Another Letdown

NFL week 15 Saturday free pick
Miller should be able to get rolling vs. the Jets 27th ranked rush defense

Houston had a chance to put away Indianapolis in the AFC South race but instead dropped a 21-24 game at home last Sunday as -4 favorites. The defeat snapped a 9-game Texans win streak but did the L destroy their confidence? A good way to get back in the win column is a meeting with a rookie QB as Houston will face in Sam Darnold in the NFL week 15 Saturday free pick. DC Romeo Crennel is 8-0 vs. rookie signal callers since becoming had of Houston’s defense. The Texans are 5th in the league vs. the rush which means Darnold and the NYJ passing attack are going to have to beat them. That’s not a good thing.

Saturday’s O/U is 44 which is tough to call considering the Texans defense ability to shut down the Jets but also Houston’s capabilities to score on New York. The Texans have put up 21+ points in four straight games and have the league’s #3 ranked rushing attack. Lamar Miller has run for 100+ in 2 of the last 3. DeAndre Hopkins has been hobbled by a foot injury and had just 4 catches for 36 yards last week. The Jets have allowed 23+ points in four straight so it could be a high scoring day for Deshaun Watson and company.

Can the Jets Produce Any Offense Today?

It’s all on Darnold today as the Jets are without Crowell and Enunwa.

New York has had a solid couple weeks on offense – by their standards at least. The Jets are average 24.5 ppg the last two games which has raised their season average to 20.8, which is still 26th in the league. Todd Bowles’ team still ranks 30th in total yards and passing yards. Even in the win over Buffalo last week however the Jets compiled only 248 yards including 28 carries for 78 yards on the ground. The Colts beat Houston behind nearly 400 yards passing from Andrew Luck. For Sam Darnold and the Jets however that’s about 3 weeks worth of passing yardage.

To get a win in the NFL week 15 Saturday free pick the Jets defense is going to have to be great. This is because their offense has been held to 17 points or less in 8 of 13 games this season. Despite losing last week the Bills ran for 176 vs. New York. The Titans had over 400 total yards the week prior and Buffalo ran for 212 in the first matchup in week 10. Yes New York is at home today but they’ve given up 27, 41, 37, and 34 points their last four at MetLife.


NFL Week 15 Saturday Free Pick Betting

The Texans are going to get pounded by the public today and betting has pushed the line up from its NYJ +5.5 open. It’s hard to see New York putting up any type of offense in this one. The Texans are talented enough to score 28+ on the NYJ defense which is going to be way too many for the Jets  O to keep it close.

NFL Free Pick: Houston Texans -7

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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