It’s said by many to be the best weekend of pro football on the season and Saturday’s divisional playoffs definitely have some intrigue. In the early 1/13 NFL free pick, the Atlanta Falcons aim to continue to spit in the face of history about previous year Super Bowl losers and march on to a second consecutive NFC Championship. Philly meanwhile must let the weight of the city fall upon their backup quarterbacks shoulders.
The evening matchup is a business casual affair as oddsmakers are giving the Titans virtually no shot of winning in Foxboro as nearly two touchdown underdogs. The Patriots try to get in, get out, and prepare for another possible showdown with Pittsburgh next week – although the Jags might have something to say about that tomorrow. Either way, let’s look at the totals and see if the ‘under’ continues to pay out come playoff time.
NFC Divisional Round – Atlanta @ Philadelphia Total: 40
The 1/13 NFL free pick total for the early NFC game has dropped quite a bit from its 44.5 open. Sure the Falcons are a dome team playing in the elements today, but the weather in Philadelphia is manageable at 33 degrees with a 12 mph wind. The Falcons had a top 10 team in both total yards and passing, while ranking 13th in rushing and 15th in points scored.
Perhaps oddsmakers feel that Atlanta’s defense will help push the ‘under’ today. Not only do the Falcons boast a top 10 defense, the perception is that Nick Foles will be Nick Fold under the playoff pressure. Foles was solid in his playoff debut – albeit it was back in the 2014 Wild Card game. In that contest Foles was 23-33 with 2TD/0 Int although Philadelphia did lose 24-26 at home to the Saints.
Pick: Philadelphia also had a top 10 defense during the regular season but they were 17th vs the pass. Last week vs the Rams Julio Jones was targeted 10 times (9 catches, 94 yards, 1TD). The name of the game in this contest is potential, and both offenses have it.
Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles ‘over’ 40
6) 21 points. 21 points. That’s the number I keep landing on. If the Eagles can get to 21, we’ll win the game.
The Falcons are 1–6 when they score 21 points or less this season. The Eagles are 12–0 when they score 21 or more.
21 points. pic.twitter.com/5C4muzzcJz
— Drew Balis (@drewBbalis) January 13, 2018
AFC Divisional Round – Tennessee @ New England Total: 48
At first glance, the number of 48 seems insanely high for this Titans / Patriots playoff game. Tennessee did average 20.9 points per game during the regular season, but expect them to be very run oriented in the 1/13 NFL free pick. Derrick Henry carried the ball 23 times for 156 yards last week and that will be the game plan again as Marcus Mariota threw 13 TD – but also 15 INT this year. The Patriots are 20th against the run but 30th versus the pass so maybe coach Mularkey opens it up for Mariota.
Yeah the Patriots defense was much maligned this year, but that was mainly due to early season struggles. Over the last half of the season, New England yielded more than 17 points just twice in eight games. As always, one of the dangers of betting an ‘under’ on Tom Brady is New England’s ability to get 75% of the total on their own. The Titans ‘D’ can stop the running game (4th) but they were 25th against the pass this season. Brady wound down the year with just 6TD compared to 4 INT over his last four games though.
Pick: With a night game we’ll see temperatures continually get colder from the 26 degrees at kickoff. The Titans simply aren’t built to come from behind and if the Patriots get up early it could be all ball control in the second half, helping an ‘under’ play tremendously.
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots ‘under’ 48
The Titans are going to try to run the ball and slow the game down. The patriots are going to score about 30 points. If you take the over I would definitely take the Titans at +13.5 because thats where those extra points are. #nfl #odds #titans #Patriots
— rosszzor (@rosszzor) January 13, 2018