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NCAAF Week 9 Navy at Tulsa Betting Preview

Public Seems to Like Midshipmen In This Matchup

It’s a very weird thing to boast about but Navy could be the best 1-6 team in the country. The Midshipmen have went toe-to-toe with the likes of #2 Cincinnati (L 20-27) and #19 SMU (L 24-31) over the past three weeks and also have a win over UCF (34-30) as +14.5 underdogs.

Those performances are why some bettors are miffed that the Midshipmen are +12 point underdogs in the week 9 Navy at Tulsa matchup. It should be noted that each of those three games were in Annapolis and Navy lost 35-17 at Memphis in their last road game in week 7. Tulsa has won three of their last four and are coming off a bye week. The Golden Hurricane also beat Navy 19-6 last year to snap a five game head-to-head losing streak.

Navy Just Missing Out on Upsets

The Midshipmen could have shook up the college football landscape but they started their comeback a little late in a 27-20 loss to +2 Cincinnati. One could also argue that the BearCats took their foot off the gas up 27-10 late in the 4th quarter but QB Tai Lavatai going 11/15 passing and the Midshipmen racking up 192 yards on the ground vs. the #2 team in the country is positive.

Tulsa has allowed 30+ points in four of their last five games, but Navy is putting up just 17.9 per game on the year which is the 16th lowest tally in the nation. The total has gone under in 7 of the last 10 Midshipmen games and Friday night’s number of 46 is the 2nd lowest of the season for a Navy game

Navy also held a talented Cincinnati offense that scores 41.3 ppg to just 27 which is also something to build on heading into Friday night’s contest. Tulsa can move the ball (457.0 ypg) especially through the air (273.4) so it’s good to know the Midshipmen held Cincinnati’s Heisman candidate Desmond Ridder to 176 yards passing last week.

Tulsa Coming Off the Bye

Navy has a unique offensive attack as their 60.7 rush attempts per game are the 3rd most in the country behind Army and Air Force. Having a bye and an extra week to prepare for the triple option has to be an advantage for the Golden Hurricane. The Bearcats gave up 192 yards on the ground last week, but also on 67 carries which only amounts to 2.87 ypc.

The main reason the week 9 Navy at Tulsa total is so low is because Tulsa has done a great job of running the ball themselves as of late. RB Shamari Brooks has simply gone off with 126 yards in three of the last four games. Tulsa as a team has run for 230+ in consecutive games with Deneric Prince picking up 110 on the ground last game against USF.

Both of these teams can run the ball, but what separates the offenses is that Tulsa can throw it too. QB Davis Brin has 250+ yards passing in four of the last five but will also throw a pick with 8 in the last 5 games.

Week 9 Navy at Tulsa Betting Pick

With a low scoring game expected it really doesn’t take a huge output from Navy to cover the +12 point spread. Sure the Midshipmen only put up barely 17 ppg, but this Tulsa defense will give up yardage in chunks.

68% of the public is on Navy which has moved the line from a +10 open. Tulsa’s 3-wins this year have come by 7, 6, and 1 point so no reason to think they start blowing out teams now – unless this is a trap game.
Navy 19 – Tulsa 27

Free Pick: Navy +12

 

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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