Oddsmakers are expecting some points in the Mississippi at Arkansas betting matchup, setting the total at a lofty 76.5, the highest of the entire week 7 slate. That number has a lot to do with Ole Miss, who put up 647 yards of offense last week against Alabama – but also allowed 723 to the Crimson Tide in a 48-63 Mississippi loss as +24.5 underdogs.
Arkansas can score too though, as they ran for 119 and threw for 318 in last week’s controversial 28-30 loss at Auburn as +13.5 underdogs. The Razorbacks are +1.5 home underdogs on Saturday afternoon (3:30 PM ET, SEC Network, but lost this meeting 31-17 last season in Oxford as +5 point road underdogs.
Can Ole Miss Find Some Defense?
It’s not very often a team puts up nearly 650 yards of offense and still loses a game by two touchdowns. Ole Miss simply couldn’t stop anything Alabama did last week as Mac Jones threw for 417 yards and Najee Harris added another 206 on the ground.
Arkansas doesn’t have the star power that Alabama does, but Florida transfer Feleipe Franks was great last week against Auburn, going 22/30 with 318 yards as well as 4 TD and 0 INT. Ole Miss also allowed a 416 yard, 6TD performance to Kyle Trask in the 51-35 Florida win in the opener. Kentucky ran for 408 on 56 carries in Mississippi’s 42-41 OT win in their second game of the year.
The bright side for the Rebels heading into Mississippi at Arkansas betting is that their offense has been spectacular this season. Matt Corral has thrown for 320+ in all three games this season with 9 TD to just 1 INT. Ole Miss is 2nd in the nation in total yards and scoring, and Arkansas allows 411.0 yards/game.
Can Razorbacks Keep Pace?
The Arkansas offense has to be licking their chops coming into Saturday afternoon’s home tilt after seeing what Alabama did to the Ole Miss defense last week. The Tide rolled through Mississippi through the ground and the air last week, but Arkansas may have trouble matching that as the nation’s 4th worst team in rushing with just 86.3 yards/game.
Razorbacks coach Sam Pittman is likely going to have to rely on QB Feleipe Franks in this game, and that’s not a bad game plan. Franks has completed over 70% of his passes the last two games, with 6 TD and 0 INT over that span – a 21-14 win over Mississippi State and the 2-point loss at Auburn.
Ultimately, Saturday afternoon’s game comes down to what the Arkansas defense does against the high-octane Mississippi offense. The Razorbacks held Georgia to just a field goal in the first half of the season opener, but were rolled by 32 unanswered points by the Bulldogs in the 37-10 UGA win. Auburn RB Tank Bigsby also went for 146 yards on 20 carries a week ago against the ‘Hogs defense.
Mississippi at Arkansas Betting Free Pick
The total is untouchable in this one at 76.5 as it’s sky high, but also attainable for an ‘over’ play. The Ole Miss offense is that good, and their defense is that bad. Alabama was able to combat the relentless Rebels pressure last week because they found a running game – something Arkansas does not have. Mississippi is going for 40+, but Arkansas cannot survive in a shootout.
Mississippi 45 – Arkansas 31
Free Pick: Mississippi -1.5