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NBA Playoffs Timberwolves at Nuggets Game 1 Betting Preview

Highly Anticipated #2 vs #3 Seed Matchup

Revenge is on the menu Saturday night in the Timberwolves at Nuggets game 1 betting matchup as Denver ended Minnesota’s season ago with a 4-1 series win in the first round. The T’Wolves and Nuggets have sat atop the West (along with OKC) and will now battle to see who goes to the conference finals.

Denver has home court advantage here as the #2 seed, even though three teams had a chance at the #1 spot going into the last day of the regular season. The Nuggets get the -4.5 favorite tag, but both teams played extremely well in their respective first round series wins.

Why the Timberwolves Have Value on Saturday

Even though they were the #3 seed in the Western Conference, a lot of people had Minnesota on upset alert in their first round series with the #6 Suns. Instead all the Timberwolves did was disperse Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Bradley Beal and company in a four game sweep – winning three contests by double digits.

He’s a former #1 pick and a 2X All-Star but it still feels like Minnesota’s Anthony Edwards is having his breakout moment this postseason. Edwards had a 33, a 36, and a 40 point performance vs. the Suns and is also averaging 8 rebounds and 6.3 assists.

It feels like Minnesota has the perfect duo to go against Denver big man Nikola Jokic in 7’1 Rudy Gobert and 7’0 Karl-Anthony Towns. Gobert averaged 11.0 rebounds vs. the Suns and Towns 9.5 so that’s a huge presence in the post.

Why the Nuggets Have Value on Saturday

Edwards had a huge first series for the T’Wolves, but people might forget that he averaged 31/5/5 in the first round last year vs. the Nuggets and Denver still closed things out in 5 games. Edwards was also held to 15 points in Game 2 vs. Phoenix – so he’s not invincible.

Somebody who rarely has down games is the 2X – likely soon to be 3X – MVP Jokic who had 28.2 points and 16.2 rebounds in the first round series vs. the Lakers. Jokic averaged 33 points and 11 rebounds in four games vs the Timberwolves this season, although the teams did split 2-2.

What the Nuggets did show in their five game closeout of the Lakers was some nice depth behind Jokic. Jamal Murray and Michael Porter, Jr. both averaged over 22 ppg vs. Los Angeles while Minnesota didn’t have anybody score 20+ aside from Edwards in their first series.

Free May 4th Timberwolves at Nuggets Game 1 Betting Pick

Denver is now 36-8 at home this season so they do get a lean playing at Ball Arena on Saturday night. In the last round though the Lakers suffered a couple of 2-point losses in Colorado, so the Nuggets don’t necessarily blow teams out. With both clubs rested, Edwards playing peak basketball, and Minnesota getting a win in Denver during the regular season you have to take the points.

Free Pick: Timberwolves +4.5

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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