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Monday Night NBA Free Pick

Denver Nuggets at Sacramento Kings

Oddsmakers are punking the Sacramento Kings for the 11/20 free NBA pick making them home underdogs to a Denver team playing their second game in two nights. Are the Kings great this season? By no means as the Sacramento record is 4-12 but Denver is a very overrated 9-7 on the season.

When you break down the 11/20 free NBA pick, not only does Sacramento offer great value – in many ways they should be favored. Check out the black and white of the game to see just why oddsmakers may be off on this tilt.

Denver Nuggets Deserve to Be Favored?

11/20 free NBA pick
Denver’s Nikola Jokic will have to be huge against Sacramento’s big front court.

The first thing working against the Nuggets in the 11/20 free NBA pick is the fact that Denver is playing their second game in two nights, both on the road. Last night the Nugs were stomped by the Lakers 127-109 despite the fact that Denver was -5.5 favorites. The Nuggets are a respectable 6-4 in their last 10, but that’s deceiving as seven of those games were in Denver. The Nuggets have actually lost three road contests in a row.

Denver has sported a solid offense so far this year, ranking 8th in the NBA in points/game, 10th in field goal percentage, and 8th in three point percentage. The Nuggets do leave a bit to be desired on defense however where they are 27th in opponents field goal percentage.

How do The Kings Possibly Get This One?

11/20 free NBA pick
Willie Cauley-Stein has thrived in a bench role lately.

Sacramento has the absolute worst offense in the NBA scoring just 92.9 points per game while shooting 42.3% from the field (29th). The Kings have shown they can buckle down on defense when needed however – especially at home. Sacramento has won three straight at the Golden 1 Center which includes victories over Oklahoma City, Philadelphia, and Portland.

An ‘X’ factor for the 11/20 free NBA pick could be Kings rookie PG De’Aaron Fox. After all, the last time the Nuggets played a rookie floor leader, Lonzo Ball notched a triple double with 11 points, 11 assists, and 16 rebounds. The Kings have also gotten a burst from Willie Cauley-Stein being moved to the bench where the 7’0 C has since put up 22 points and 18 points while grabbing 10 and 9 rebounds.

11/20 Free NBA Pick – Betting

The biggest thing hindering the Nuggets in the 11/20 free NBA pick is that they’re playing their second game in two nights. The last time Denver did that they lost by 19 to Golden State…at home. The Kings have not only had a night off, they’ve won three in a row at home whereas the Nuggets have dropped three consecutive road tilts. Getting 5.5 points at home is nice if you’re backing Sacramento (like only about 40% of the public is doing) but it really feels like the Kings win this one outright.

Pick: Sacramento Kings ML +184

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Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I’ve learned from 20 years as a sports bettor.

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