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Monday March 11th Free NBA O/U Pick: Kings at Wizards

Oddsmakers Expecting Some Points When Sacramento Visits Washington

The March 11th NBA free pick total is set pretty high as oddsmakers have set the number at 240 in the matchup between the Wizards and the Kings. Side wise, the contest definitely means more for Sacramento as the Kings are 4GB from the 8 seed in the West with just 14 games to play. The Wizards are just 3-7 over their last 10 and, as expected, some pretty bad defense has been played over that span.

Kings Like to Push the Pace – or Do They?

March 11th NBA free pick
Corey Brewer has given the Kings a solid and scrappy defender to turn to.

Overall Sacramento is 3rd in the NBA in possessions per game at 107.1 but they’ve dropped to 14th over their last 3 and had the ball just 101 times Saturday vs. the Knicks. The Sacramento offense has been held to under 110 points in 3 of their last 4 and won by the score of 102-96 over the Knicks the last time out. New York is 24th in opponents scoring and 25th in field goal percentage against so it was a disappointing offensive showing for Sacramento despite 30 points from De’Aaron Fox. The Kings got virtually nothing from their front court on Saturday as Harrison Barnes, Willie Cauley-Stein, and Bogdan Bogdanovic combined for just 27 points.

As expected with a teamthat likes to push the pace, the Kings defense sometimes suffers as a result and hence the 240 O/U for the March 11th NBA free pick. Sacramento has buckled down the last two a bit though giving up 111 to Boston and under 100 to the Knicks. The addition of Corey Brewer last month has done a lot to change Sacramento’s defensive approach and they’ve become a much more hard nosed team in the process. The ‘under’ has hit in 6 of the last 7 Kings games.

Wizards Hurting on Defense Right Now

March 11th NBA free pick
Portis has been a huge addition for the Wizards.

Besides the Kings fast-paced offense, another reason Monday’s total is so high is because the Washington defense has been giving up a lot of points recently. The Wizards have allowed 120+ to three of the last four opponents. Washington also ranks 29th in points/game allowed, 28th in opponents fg%, and 28th vs. the 3-pointer. Ironically the Wizards rank 1st defensively vs. the SG, SF, and PF position in terms of daily fantasy so expect a big night from the Kings’ Fox and Cauley-Stein if this total is going to head towards the ‘over.’

Washington comes into the March 11th NBA free pick with a 2-2 record over their last four even though their offense has gone for 130+ in 3 of the last 4. Bradley Beal is going to get his with 29+ points in 4 of the last 6 but Bobby Portis has been solid as well with 20+ points in 3 of 4. Wizards games have gone ‘over’ in 3 of 4.

March 11th NBA Free Pick Betting

240 points is an awful lot for Monday night. Sure the Wizards have been scoring lights out but the Kings defense has looked much better recently. The Kings offense also hasn’t been scoring the basketball at their usual pace over the last week-plus. This leads to a lower scoring game than people might think.

NBA Free Pick: Kings / Wizards *Under* 240

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Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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