The American League Division Series wraps up Friday night with a decisive Game 5 between the Seattle Mariners and Detroit Tigers. First pitch is set for 8:08 PM ET at T-Mobile Park in Seattle. The Tigers are listed as -140 favorites, while the Mariners are +118 underdogs. The total is set at just 5.5 runs, signaling another low-scoring matchup.
Detroit forced this deciding game with a 9-3 win in Game 4 on Wednesday, using a four-run sixth inning to break things open. Riley Greene and Javier Báez both homered, and Gleyber Torres added a solo shot in the seventh. The Mariners’ bullpen struggled badly, giving up seven runs over the final four innings after holding steady earlier in the series.
Now the Tigers turn to ace Tarik Skubal, while the Mariners counter with George Kirby. Both teams have split the first four games, with Detroit outscoring Seattle 21-17 overall. The winner of this series will move on to face the Yankees in the ALCS.
SEA Preview – Kirby Ready for Another Pressure Start
George Kirby gets the ball for Seattle in the biggest start of his career. The right-hander allowed two runs over five innings in Game 1, striking out eight. Kirby has been consistent at home, posting a 2.71 ERA at T-Mobile Park this season. His control remains elite, walking just one batter in his last 19 innings.
Kirby has experience in this spot. He threw seven scoreless innings in an elimination game against Houston during the 2022 postseason. Seattle manager Dan Wilson praised his starter’s composure, saying, “He knows what this means, but he doesn’t let the moment get too big.” Kirby has faced Detroit multiple times this season, going 1-1 with a 3.50 ERA across 12 innings.
The Mariners’ bullpen will play a major role after being overworked in Game 4. Andrés Muñoz and Matt Brash are expected to be available after light usage Wednesday, while Gabe Speier and Eduard Bazardo could provide middle-inning coverage. Seattle’s relievers rank among the top five in WHIP (1.13) and ERA (3.31) this year but have allowed 15 runs across the last three games, showing some fatigue.
Offensively, Seattle needs more from the middle of its order. Julio Rodríguez and Jorge Polanco are hitting just .214 combined this series. Cal Raleigh has been one of the few bright spots, driving in five runs through four games. Seattle has scored three runs or fewer in six of its last eight games overall, making early production against Skubal critical.
DET Preview – Skubal Looks to Deliver in Decisive Start
Tarik Skubal, the reigning AL Cy Young winner, will start for Detroit. He allowed two runs over seven innings in Game 2 but was tagged with the loss in a 3-2 defeat. Skubal enters Friday with a 2.70 ERA and 8.4 strikeouts per game over his last five starts. However, he’s had limited success against Seattle this season, taking two losses and a no-decision across three outings.
Skubal has given up five home runs to Seattle hitters this year, including two to Jorge Polanco. Despite that, his strikeout command and ground-ball rate remain strong. Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said before the game, “He’s the guy we want on the mound in this spot. He’s earned it.”
Detroit’s offense has caught fire late in the series. Riley Greene is batting .409 over the last six games, and Gleyber Torres has homered in back-to-back contests. Javier Báez’s bat also woke up in Game 4, giving Detroit’s lineup more depth. The Tigers have scored at least eight runs in three of their last five games, showing signs of breaking out of their early-series slump.
The bullpen remains a concern for Detroit. The group has allowed 14 earned runs in the last three games, with several key arms showing fatigue. Will Vest and Kyle Finnegan are expected to handle late innings, while Tyler Holton could be used for matchup spots against Seattle’s left-handed bats. If Skubal can give them length, it will be crucial for Detroit’s chances.
Betting Prediction
This Game 5 matchup features two elite pitchers and two bullpens that have shown both strength and weakness in recent games. Skubal has been one of baseball’s best arms all season, but Seattle has hit him well in past matchups. Kirby’s home-field numbers and command make him a strong option to counter Detroit’s offense.
Detroit’s recent hitting surge makes them dangerous, but Seattle’s experience at home and their advantage in the later innings tilt this slightly toward the Mariners. In a low-scoring game, Seattle’s bullpen depth and Kirby’s poise could be the difference. Expect a tight contest that stays under the total, with Seattle edging out a narrow win to advance to the ALCS. Predicted final score: Mariners 3, Tigers 1.
Pick: Seattle Mariners +118 and Under 5.5 Runs
