Nobody in their right mind is betting against Jake Arrieta and the Cubs in the 6-22 free MLB Pick. Which is what makes St. Louis +210 such a solid wager.
The St. Louis Cardinals Play
In MLB betting, “getaway day” is very intriguing. Many times when the road team has wrapped up the first two games of the series, the smart money is on the home team. A series win is cause for reward with most teams and many choose the club over the film room even if a day game looms the next day.
This is the exact situation that St. Louis finds themselves in heading into Wednesday’s 2:20 ET tilt against the Cubs – however the circumstances are a bit different. The Cardinals have taken the first two of the series against their division rivals, 3-2 and 4-3. Wednesday is no throwaway game however as St. Louis desperately seeks the sweep and a chance to lower the Cubs lead in the NL Central to 9.5 games – enough incentive to stay away from Rush St. last night?
One thing working against St. Louis for the 6-22 Free MLB pick is the pitching matchup. Not only are they facing Arrieta (11-1, 1.74 ERA), the Cardinals counter with Michael Wacha who is 2-7 battling a 4.56 ERA. Cubs batters are salivating at the opportunity to face Wacha, especially Anthony Rizzo who is batting .440 with 2 HR and Kris Bryant with his .385 and 1 HR against the pitcher. Beware though, Wacha has pitched well recently, going into the 7th and allowing just 3ER total in his last two starts.
— CubsVineLine (@cubsvineline) June 22, 2016
Are the Cubs the Pick?
Jake Arrieta on the mound has been money in the bank for the pitcher’s last 40-something starts spanning the last 2 years. The big right-hander has been especially good against Chicago’s NL Central rivals this season posting an 11-0 record with a 1.20 ERA in 13 starts. Arrieta has a great record on the year, but he’s also been a product of insane run support. The Cubs are averaging 6 runs a game the last 7 Arrieta starts.
“The Snake” isn’t exactly invincible either. He’s pitched into the 7th just 2 of his last 5 starts and went just 5.0 IP giving up 4 ER in an eventual 9-8 win over the Cardinals on May 25th. That being said, Cardinal batters are hitting just .197 against Arrieta in their careers.
6-22 Free MLB Pick
The easy play today would seemingly be Arrieta and the Cubs as they try to stop a two-game skid and avoid the sweep against their rivals. The line movement doesn’t resemble as much however. After opening at -300 the line has dropped all the way to Chicago -240. There’s really no value in the Cubs ML and the run line (-115) seems to be luring bettors in. In order to recoup $100 on the Cardinals ML, you only have to bet $48. Still, the +1.5 run line seems like the play at a nice -105 price.
6-22 Free MLB Pick: Cardinals +1.5 (-105)