The top two teams in the NL West get set to do battle once again in the May 8th Padres at Giants contest. San Francisco was able to pad their lead to 1.5 games after a 5-4 win in Friday’s series opener. SF showed patience at the plate, getting just 1 hit off San Diego starter Blake Snell but drawing 6 BBs.
Oddsmakers like the Padres to even up this series, listing them as -135 road favorites behind Joe Musgrove (2-3, 2.38 ERA). San Diego lost this matchup 7-1 last week with the Giants’ starter Kevin Gausman (2-0, 2.04 ERA) allowed just 1 ER over 6.0 IP.
Padres Bats Inconsistent As of Late
For as explosive some of the individuals on the Padres offense are, they are still just 24th in the majors in scoring, OPS, and HR, and 20th in batting average. San Diego scored all four of their runs in Friday’s loss in one inning off of HRs from Trent Grisham and Eric Hosmer. Grisham and Jake Cronenworth are the only two SD batters hitting above .250 over the past week.
San Diego has also been held to 2 runs or less in three of their last five, including 7-1 last Sunday against Gausman and the Giants. Fernando Tatis, Jr. was 1-3 in that game and his solo HR was the only run of the game for the Padres. Hosmer (3-7, .429), Tommy Pham (4-8, .500) and Jurickson Profar (4-11, .364) have all had some success vs. the SF starter.
The big question for San Diego backers is how Musgrove will rebound after allowing 5ER in 5 IP to the Giants last Sunday. That outing ballooned the right-hander’s ERA from 1.24 to a still respectable 2.38. Musgrove had allowed 4ER total in his first five starts of the season.
Giants Great at Home This Season
San Francisco has some built-in value at +115 as they are 11-3 at home on the season. That includes 8-3 in their last 11 as home underdogs and victories in 6 of their last 8 at Oracle Park overall.
The 7-1 win over San Diego last Sunday seems to have kick-started the Giants offense. SF has scored 5+ runs in all five games since then, granted 23 of those came in a three game series at Coors Field but still. The 5ER put up against Musgrove last week is wild, because the team still has just a .154 (8-52) team BA vs. the SD starter. Take away a combined 0-20 from Evan Longoria and Wilmer Flores and that number looks a bit better.
Can Gausman repeat his stellar performance vs. the Padres last weekend? It’s likely, as he’s been on a role lately with just 2ER allowed over the last three starts (20 IP). He has 22 K’s in that span as well so the right-hander has found his groove.
Free May 8th Padres at Giants Pick
That’s a heck of a price tag on San Diego (-135) against a Giants team that is 11-3 at home on the season. San Fran got to Musgrove last time out, and looked good against Snell in drawing 6 BBs on Friday. Gausman is in the zone which should continue.
Giants 4 – Padres 3