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MLB Betting Free Pick July 27th Saturday : Twins at White Sox

Minnesota Should Dominate In This One...On Paper at Least

The Twins are -190 favorites in the MLB betting free pick July 27th. That’s a lot of coin to lay in a major league baseball game and if a bettor is that confident in a dominating win they should go with the RL (-1.5) that offers increased value at -123. Minnesota is no cake walk in this one however. Sure they’ve taken the first two in the series vs. the White Sox, but Chicago might strangely have the pitching edge on Saturday night.

Twins Looking Good So Far in Series

MLB betting free pick July 27th
Kepler and the Twins became the fastest team in MLB history to 200 HR’s.

It’s been a nice start to a road trip for Minnesota who recently wrapped up a 3-6 stand at Target Field. The Twins rattled off a 10-3 win on Thursday vs. Chicago ace Lucas Giolito and used HR’s from Max Kepler and Nelson Cruz to defeat the White Sox 6-3 on Friday getting a win over promising youngster Dylan Cease. Cruz is absolutely on fire with 7 HR’s in his last 5 games including a hat trick on Thursday. Minnesota has rattled off 16 runs so far in the series and that was against two of the better Chicago pitchers. Minnesota hits .329 vs. Saturday’s starter Ivan Nova and Cruz and Jonathan Schoop have 7 XB hits in 30 combined AB vs. the Chicago pitcher (4 HR).

Oddsmakers are expecting some runs in the MLB betting free pick July 27th as they’ve set the O/U at 11 runs. Is that due to Minnesota’s offense though – or their pitching? Martin Perez gets the nod Saturday night after serving up 3HR and walking 4 vs. the Yankees last time out. Perez now has six outings of 4+ runs allowed in his last 9 starts. The left-hander has a 4.97 road ERA this season in 9 games – but as a testament to the Minnesota offense he’s 4-1 over that span. Perez hasn’t pitched vs. the White Sox yet in 2019.

White Sox Have Nice Payout With a Win Saturday

MLB betting free pick July 27th
Abreu has seen his share of struggles vs. the lefty Perez.

Chicago is a +160 underdog in the MLB betting free pick. It’s a slippery slope how you want to look at the past performance of Saturday’s starter Ivan Nova. On one hand he had his best pitching performance of the season going 9.0 IP of 4 hit, 1 ER ball. That being said, his first complete game since April of 2017 came against the Marlins (29th in runs/game) and it cost Nova a season high 112 pitches. Nova had given up 10ER in 10.1 IP in the two starts prior. He now goes on 4 days rest after throwing a boat load of pitches and with the Twins potent offense anxious and waiting.

Unfortunately Nova may have to be sparkling on Saturday as the White Sox offense hasn’t provided much of a spark as of late. Chicago has now been held to 3 runs or less in 6 of the last 7, scoring 2 runs or less in 5 of those games. Jose Abreu is just a .222 hitter vs. Perez in 9 career AB (4 K’s), while James McCann has gone just 1-7 vs. the Minnesota starter. Chicago slugger Yoan Moncada has never faced Perez in his career.

Top Trends:

  • Twins are 4-1 last 5 road games
  • Twins are 16-5 last 21 Saturday games
  • Twins are 5-2 in Perez’s last 7 road starts
  • White Sox are 0-4 last 4 home games
  • Twins are 10-2 last 12 H2H meetings

MLB Betting Free Pick July 27th

The Twins can put up some runs on Saturday vs. a somewhat fatigued Nova. Perez is no sure thing on the other side of the diamond but the last two Minnesota starters have each gone 7.0 IP vs. the beleaguered White Sox offense. At the very least, that means a fresh bullpen if Perez does struggle giving the Twins yet another edge.

MLB Free Pick: Minnesota Twins RL -1.5 (-123)

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Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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