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May 28th NL Free Pick : Cardinals at Phillies

Can Philadelphia Continue to Drive St. Louis Into a Hole?

The last time we saw St. Louis in action they were blowing a 3-0 9th inning lead to Atlanta en route to a 3-4 loss on Sunday Night Baseball. The Cardinals had a day off to process that loss and now head to Philadelphia for the May 28th NL free pick. The Phillies have won 7 of 10, but have a lot of value listed as just -125 favorites on Tuesday. Is that line too low as public bettors hammer Gabe Kapler’s team?

Cardinals Turn to Wainwright to Stop the Bleeding

May 28th NL free pick
St. Louis has the #11 scoring offense in baseball but doesn’t scare anybody lately.

St. Louis’ bullpen woes were on full display the last time out vs. Atlanta so the team is hoping for a nice long outing from starter Adam Wainwright. That might be a tall order though as the right-hander has been getting rocked to the tune of 8ER allowed in his last two starts (9.0 IP). He also surrendered 6ER in 5.0 IP four starts ago to Chicago so Wainwright’s ERA for May sits at 6.43. Overall Wainwright is 1-3 with a 6.75 ERA on the road in 2019 so it could be up to the shell-shocked Cardinals bullpen to keep this one close yet again.

Of course the formula is there for a bounce-back game from the Cardinals especially after Monday’s off day. Then again St. Louis is just 3-7 in their last 10 and the offense has scored 3 runs or less in 6 of those games. Paul Goldschmidt and Matt Carpenter are both heating up a bit for the Cardinals, going a combined 14-38 (.368). Goldschmidt has hit just 2 HR since April 22nd however. In the last 5 games Dexter Fowler is hitting .188 from the lead-off spot and Marcell Ozuna is batting .211 at clean-up so St. Louis is a tough team to back in the May 28th NL free pick.

Phillies Bats in for a Big Night?

May 28th NL free pick
Andrew McCutchen is hitting .346 over the last 6 games.

Philadelphia was able to take 2 of 3 in Milwaukee and also split a 4-gamer at Wrigley so they have won 3 of their last 4 contests. The Phillies also took the last 2 of a 3 game series at Busch Stadium in early May, outscoring the Cardinals 16-1 in those two wins. Bryce Harper had a grand slame in an 11-1 win in St. Louis on May 7th while Rhys Hoskins and Cesar Hernandez also went deep in the series. Philadelphia could put up a lot of runs again in the May 28th NL free pick as they’ve seen Wainwright a combined 132 AB. Harper has gone 9-20 (.450) with a HR and Andrew McCutchen has 9 extra base hits in 61 AB vs. the Cardinals starter.

The Phillies seem to have the offensive edge in this one but what about pitching? Nick Pivetta is on the bump trying to get right with his first start in the majors since April 16th. Philadelphia had no choice but to send the right-hander down to Triple A after he posted an 8.35 ERA through the first four starts of the season – and all were at home. Strangely enough he had a 2-1 record in those starts. Collectively though, St. Louis hits under .200 vs. Pivetta including Carpenter going 2-10 and Ozuna just 2-13. Perhaps it’s a good matchup for the Phillies starter to bounce back in.

May 28th NL Free Pick Betting

It’s very possible that Pivetta could struggle in this one – or he could be pitching for his major league life and shut down a St. Louis lineup that has seen their share of struggles as of late. Philadelphia should be able to get to Wainwright on the other side of the diamond as he’s been ailing mightily on the road. This would lead to a higher scoring game (O/U 10) but there’s great value on the Phillies back home after a day off and a 7 game road swing. Philadelphia is 18-10 at Citizens Bank Park on the year.

NL Free Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -125
Bonus Pick: *Over* 10

 

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Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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