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January 16th NBA Free Pick Wednesday : Spurs at Mavericks

Dallas Slight Underdogs Despite Solid Home Record

Oddsmakers are calling the January 16th NBA free pick between San Antonio and Dallas virtually a toss up. On one hand the Spurs have gone 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games. Then again the Mavs are one of the better home teams in the league with a 16-5 record at the American Airlines Center. Dallas has also gone 13-4 ATS their last 17 home contests.

Can Spurs Get Back on Track Wednesday?

January 16th NBA free pick
Aldridge was largely held in check during the first meeting between these two teams.

The Mavericks seem like they should be bigger favorites at home in the January 16th NBA free pick. After all San Antonio has dropped two in a row and looked especially bad in a 93-108 loss at home to the Hornets on Monday. The Spurs have now lost 3 of 4 after climbing back up the standings in the West with a 5-game win streak prior. San Antonio has also failed to cover in their last five games vs. the Mavericks.

San Antonio does have an outright win over Dallas already this year. On October 29th Gregg Popovich’s team scored a 113-108 win in San Antonio as 7 point favorites. DeMar DeRozan had 34 points in that game but Lamarcus Aldridge was largely held in check with 20 points and 6 rebounds. The Spurs will get a boost with the return of Rudy Gay tonight after he’s missed the last 5 games with a wrist injury. San Antonio is just 2-3 over that span.

Is Home Court Enough To Favor the Mavericks In This Meeting?

January 16th NBA free pick
Another big night from Doncic should push the Mavs to the win.

Dallas did lose the first meeting between these two teams back in October, but they played tough forcing the game to OT. The Mavs will also be back at the American Airlines Center which gives them a huge edge in the rematch. That being said, Dallas has dropped 2 in a row on their home court including a 114-119 loss to Golden State on Sunday. The Mavs also dropped a 97-107 contest at home to the Lebron-less Lakers on January 7th. Dallas is far from invincible on their own turf, but is tonight an  easy win with the way San Antonio has been playing?

Despite being at home, another huge advantage Dallas has in the January 16th NBA free pick is the play of Luka Doncic lately. The super rookie dropped 31 points in the first meeting and has 25+ points in four straight games. The Mavs also have Deandre Jordan as a force down low to control Aldridge. Jordan snagged 19 rebounds in the game in San Antonio. Dallas does take a hit with JJ Barea being lost for the year with an injury over the weekend, but they’ve got a veteran bench that can pick up the slack.

January 16th NBA Free Pick Betting

There’s a case to be made for both teams Wednesday. The Spurs get scoring depth with the return of Gay and desperately need a win after dropping two in a row. Dallas is very tough at home however. Ultimately it is the home court as well as the combination of Jordan’s defense on the blocks as well as Doncic’s offense on the perimeter that gives the Mavs the edge.

NBA Free Pick: Dallas Mavericks +1

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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