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Friday August 17th MLB Free Total Pick

Yankees Offense Is Always an Over Threat; Why Is the Total So Low Tonight?

The August 17th AL free pick is a total play and it’s leaning heavily towards the ‘over’ on paper. For one, you’ve got the New York Yankees and their #3 scoring offense playing at home. Not only that, Lance Lynn is on the hill for New York and although he’s been good – he’s not great. Marcus Stroman takes the bump for Toronto and although he’s been solid lately too, 9 runs isn’t a whole lot between  these two teams. Throw in a 12 MPH wind blowing out to left and does this ‘over’ seem to easy?

Do the Blue Jays Have Anything to Play For?

August 17th AL free pick
Can Morales lead the Blue Jays to steal one against the Yankees on Friday night?

Toronto has been long out of the postseason hunt considering that Boston and New York are a combined 79 games above .500 at the top of the division. That being said, the Blue Jays aren’t going to lose every game the rest of the year. Based on the Toronto offense alone however, the August 17th AL free pick should probably be an ‘under’ play. The Blue Jays have scored 2 runs or less in 5 of their last 7. Kevin Pillar and Russell Martin are the only everyday Toronto players hitting above .300 over the past 7 days. Basically one of the only threats to the ‘over’ tonight is Kendrys Morales who is 3-4 with 2HR in his career vs. Lance Lynn. Martin is also hitting .400 with 2 dingers vs. the New York starter.

The ‘Jays only hope tonight is that they have Marcus Stroman (4-8, 5.03 ERA) on the hill. The right-hander has allowed 2ER or less in 4 of his last 5 and isn’t intimidated by strong offenses as evidenced by his 2-hitter vs. Boston 10 days ago. That being said, Stroman’s numbers vs. the Yankees this year aren’t great. In two starts he’s allowed 10 ER in 12.1 IP. There’s a reason New York is a huge favorite tonight (NYY –185) but the big question is if the Blue Jays can get there’s on offense.

Better Question – What Are the Yankees Playing For?

August 17th AL free pick
Lance Lynn was kind of a throwaway signing at the trade deadline but he’s been a solid addition.

For most of the summer the Yankees were in a tight battle for the AL East but they’ve since dropped to a dumbfounding 10.5 GB from Boston in the division. The Yankees still have a 3 game lead over Oakland for the top wild card spot but they’ve lost 3 of 4 which makes you wonder how motivated the team is at this point in the season. One thing that ‘under’ bettors in the August 17th AL free pick will notice is that New York has scored just 6 runs in the last 3 games. The team always has great potential though as evidenced by their steak of 4+ runs scored in the 10 games prior. The Yankees do have just a .238 career average vs. Stroman though so this game could go either way total-wise.

Lance Lynn (8-8, 4.46 ERA) has been a miraculous find for the Yankees who picked him up for a song from the Twins at the trade deadline. Since coming to the Bronx Lynn has allowed a whopping total of 1 ER in three starts. The right-hander has an ERA of 0.54 in 16-2/3 IP as a Yankee. The Blue Jays have hit .349 in 43 AB vs. Lynn but there’s a different mindset between being a Twin and a Bronx Bomber.

August 17th AL Free Pick – Betting

You could play the ‘under’ with no worries tonight beings that both Stroman and Lynn have been on a roll over their last 5 respective starts. That being said, a bad inning by either pitcher has this game pushing towards the ‘over’ on a very low total. Add in a 12 MPH wind out to left field and it’s a hitters night in the Bronx.

Free Pick: Toronto Blue Jays / New York Yankees ‘over’ 8

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Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor.

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