The line for the August 8th MLB free pick between the Cubs and Royals is CHI -244 which frankly doesn’t have any value at all. Yes Chicago has won the first two games of the series by a combined score of 8-1, but they also previously split a 4-game series with last place San Diego at home the weekend before. Therefore tonight’s action on this game should be on the total. It’s set at 9 which is doable by the Cubs offense alone if they can get going – but how big is that IF?
Cubs Offense Has Been Good – But Not Great
The Cubs have scored 5+ runs in 6 of their last 9 but that only gets us about half way there to tonight’s total of 9. The under is 5-2 in the Cubs last 7 road games including 5-2 in the last 7 road games vs. a right-hand starter. One of the things you always worry about when betting totals with Chicago’s top 5 offense in the majors is if they don’t accidentally push the ‘over’ mainly by themselves. Temperatures are hovering near 90 degrees which could lead to more offense from both teams tonight. Speaking of hot, Ben Zobrist (.429), upstart David Bote (.364), and Javy Baez (.345, 3HR) are powering this Cubs team over the past 7 days. Willson Contreras (.333), Anthony Rizzo (.321, 2HR), and Kyle Schwarber (.318) round out the list of 7 Cubs regular rotation players hitting over .300 the past week.
The Cubs should be able to score tonight so whether the August 8th MLB free pick goes ‘over’ or ‘under’ 9 depends on the consistency of Jose Quintana (10-7, 4.12 ERA). The lefty was great last time out allowing just 1ER over 6.0 IP to San Diego but was rocked for 6 runs in just 3 innings the start prior against St. Louis. Quintana has a lot of experience against the Royals from his days with the White Sox, allowing a .280 average and .335 OBP in 143 total AB.
Can the Royals Avoid the Sweep – Better Yet Do They Care?
Since the July 31st trade deadline the Royals have gone 1-6, Scoring two runs or less in three of the last four. They look like a totally disinterested team lately dropping 6 in a row and managing just 1 total run in the first two games of the series against the Cubs. Only three Royals are hitting over .290 during the past week. That being said, the Royals could put up some runs tonight mostly due to their familiarity with Quintana. Salvador Perez is 19-63 (.302) with 2HR vs. the Chicago pitcher. Whit Merrifield has also had success in a smaller sample size (4-12, .333) while Alex Gordon has had some success in the lefty-lefty matchup (15-52, .288, 2HR). That being said Kansas City is just 5-17 in their last 22 vs. a Southpaw starter.
The Cubs have never faced tonight’s Royals starter Heath Fillmyer (0-1, 3.86 ERA). It’s been a rough 2018 for the rookie as the Royals have lost all 8 games that Fillmyer has appeared in. Four of those were starts and he’s allowed 3ER in 3 of his 4 starts this season. Two of those games came against Boston and the Yankees, a couple of the better offenses in baseball. Can the right hander repeat that success against another quality hitting team in the Cubs tonight?
August 8th MLB Free Pick Betting
The under has hit in the first two games of the series mainly due to the fact that Kansas City has barely scored. Two factors are leading towards a higher scoring contest tonight. !) the Royals have faced Quintana a number of times and 2) Fillmyer has pitched out of the 5th just once in 4 starts meaning we could see a lot of the KC bullpen. This should lead to a 6-4 or 7-3 type game.
Free Pick: Chicago Cubs / Kansas City Royals *Over* 9