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2019 NCAA SEC Championship Game Free Pick: Georgia vs. LSU

Offense vs. Defense In Top 4 Matchup

2 of the top 4 teams in the country meet up in the 2019 NCAA SEC Championship Game free pick as #2 LSU and #4 Georgia lock heads. There’s a lot on the line in the big picture for both teams. LSU is likely still in the CFP playoffs even with a loss, but a dominating win could vault them to #1. A 2nd loss on the season almost definitely boots the bulldogs from playoff contention so UGA is definitely in a do-or-die situation as +7 point underdogs here.

Georgia’s Defense In the Limelight Here

2019 NCAA SEC Championship Game free pick
Fromm has been great since the lemon at South Carolina.

This game would look a lot different if not for the lone blemish on Georgia’s record, a 17-20 OT loss to South Carolina on October 12th. Now the Bulldogs’ playoff hopes rely on beating Louisiana State in the 2019 NCAA SEC Championship Game free pick. This game is your classic battle of offense vs. defense, LSU’s #2 scoring attack vs. Georgia’s #2 defense.

Is Georgia a vulnerable +7 underdog here for the simple fact that they did lose to the Gamecocks? The Bulldogs did outgain SC 468 to 297 in that game, but also had 4 turnovers including a Jake Fromm INT that was returned 53 yards for a TD. The Bulldogs’ two biggest wins were by a TD each on the road at Florida and at Auburn. South Carolina is the only team to have put up more than 17 points vs. the UGA defense on the year.

There are definitely some things to like about Georgia on Saturday. The first being that Fromm has 12 TD to 0 INT since the loss to the Gamecocks. The other is that this will be the 3rd straight year of being in the SEC Championship game for Kirby Smart and UGA. Ed Orgeron’s LSU squad had 3+ losses in each of the last two seasons before running the table this year.

Is the LSU Offense Just Too In Sync?

2019 NCAA SEC Championship Game free pick
Edwards-Helaire put up some great numbers vs. Georgia last season.

Where to start with the offensive accolades that LSU has compiled this season? Joe Burrow set an SEC record with 4,366 yards this season and his 44 passing TDs made him the first in conference history with 4000/40. Burrow was great in the win at Alabama going 31/39 for 393 and 3 TDs. LSU is far from a one-man team though.

Ja’Marr Chase leads the country with 17 TD catches and is second with nearly 1,500 yards. RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire leads the conference in rushing TDs and perhaps more importantly ran for 145 yards in last year’s LSU 20 point win over Georgia. LSU as a team ran for 275 yards in that meeting last October. Not only has there not been a letdown after the Alabama win as +5 underdogs, the Tigers seem to be getting better with 50+ points in each of their last 3 games.

The LSU defense will give up some points, but that’s more due to the success of their offense. The Tigers have 57 scoring drives of 3 minutes or less on the year. The total for this one is set at 57.

2019 NCAA SEC Championship Game Free Pick

Points look good in this matchup. The LSU spread offense can do whatever they want over the last month but Fromm and the Bulldogs are comfortable being in the high pressure of a conference championship game. Georgia is one of two teams that haven’t allowed over 20 points in a game on the year – but Burrow is on a different level right now.

Pick: Georgia / LSU *Over* 57

Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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