The NFL week 11 MNF total pick matches up the Atlanta Falcons at the Seattle Seahawks. The first glance would predict ‘under’ due to the Falcons offense that is perceived as struggling – while also going into CenturyLink Field to face the 12th Man. Oddsmakers are looking at this game in a different light however, posting the total at 46…and it’s on the rise.
The major reason that a bevy of points is expected in the NFL week 11 MNF total pick is because the Seahawks defense is so banged up. Even so, the Seattle ’12th man’ crowd is still in the house so how does Atlanta justify being -1 favorites in this game, more importantly how do they score?
Is The Game a Solid ‘Over’ Play?
There’s no doubt that the Seahawks are a bit thin on the defensive side of the ball. Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman are gone for the year while Earl Thomas, Michael Bennett, and a host of other defenders are playing through ailments. The Falcons are just 5-4 this year, but they also sport the #8 offense in the NFL which is 11th best in passing and a surprising 13th in rushing.
Atlanta is hardly the only team that can put up points in the NFL week 11 MNF total pick. The Seahawks are 7th best in total yardage gained which includes the 3rd best passing attack in the NFL. Seattle has put up 22+ points in three of their last four games and rank 12th in the league in points scored with 23.4.
How Can You Justify an ‘Under’ Bet?
While the Seahawks are a bit undermanned, you can’t overlook the effect that their -home crowd has on opposing offenses. Seattle is 3-1 at home this season and has allowed 18 points or less in three of those four games. The Seahawks rank 10th in the NFL in total yards allowed, 14th in defensive passing and 9th in rush yards given up. Say what you want about the Atlanta offense, but they’ve scored 17 points or less in four of the last six games.
Another area that could impact an ‘under’ play in the NFL week 11 total pick is Atlanta’s often overlooked defense. The Falcons are 8th in the NFL in total yards allowed including 6th versus the pass – which the Seahawks thrive upon. The Falcons defense has given up 20 points or less in four of the last five games and tonight’s squads rank 11th (Atlanta) and 6th (Seattle) in points allowed.
NFL Week 11 MNF Total Pick – Betting
Bettors are all over the map in this contest as the line opened up at Seattle -3 but has been bet to Atlanta -1. The NFL week 11 MNF total pick has gone up a point to 46 as wagerers assume that a depleted Seattle D means Atlanta cutting through the team like a hot knife through butter. However, regardless of who is in the secondary the Seahawks crowds make it incredibly tough on opposing offenses, especially in primetime. 46 is just too many points for these two defenses, Atlanta’s of which is highly underrated.
Pick: Atlanta Falcons / Seattle Seahawks *Under 46