The Washington Mystics will host the Phoenix Mercury at CareFirst Arena in Washington, D.C. on Thursday night. Tip is set for 7:30 PM ET. This is the third meeting between the two teams this season, with Phoenix winning the first two, including an 88-72 road victory on July 27.
Phoenix enters the matchup at 26-14 and sitting third in the Western Conference. Washington is 16-25 and in fourth place in the Eastern Conference but has already been eliminated from playoff contention. Both teams are trending in different directions, with Phoenix fighting for playoff seeding and Washington looking to end its season on a better note.
Mystics Preview – Can They Halt the Skid?
The Mystics come into this game on a seven-game losing streak, during which they’ve lost by an average of 14.3 points. Washington is 5-15 in its last 20 games, and its last win came in late July against Seattle. The team has struggled to find consistent scoring and has often fallen behind early in games.
Kiki Iriafen continues to be a bright spot. She had 22 points and 13 rebounds in her last outing and has scored 20 or more points six times this season. Sonia Citron has also been steady, hitting double figures in 36 games this season, which is a WNBA rookie record.
The Mystics are missing Jacy Sheldon, who is out with an ankle injury, and Georgia Amoore, who was lost for the season with an ACL tear. Shakira Austin provides size inside but managed just 11 points and 7 boards last game. Washington’s defense has given up 81.6 points per game, ranked seventh in the league, while scoring just 79.1, one of the lowest averages.
At home, the Mystics are 10-10, but they’ve dropped several close games lately, including an 81-78 loss to Los Angeles. Washington is 19-22 against the spread and 19-21-1 on totals. They may not be fighting for playoff spots, but they can impact seeding with games left against Phoenix, Indiana, and New York.
Mercury Preview – Riding a Long Win Streak
Phoenix has found its best form at the right time. The Mercury are on a five-game win streak, matching their second-longest run of the season, and they’re 10-3 in their last 13 games. This has allowed them to pull ahead of the New York Liberty for homecourt positioning in the postseason.
Alyssa Thomas powered the Mercury in their last win, putting up 23 points, 9 rebounds, and 9 assists in an all-around performance. Kahleah Copper added 11 points while Satou Sabally chipped in 13. Rookie Monique Akoa Makani and Natasha Mack have also made contributions during this run, giving Phoenix solid depth.
The Mercury average 83.1 points per game, which ranks sixth in the WNBA, and they’ve done it with balance. They shoot 43.5% from the floor and nearly 34% from three, both top-seven marks in the league. Their defense has also been steady, holding opponents to 81.6 points per game, nearly matching what they score. Phoenix is 15-6 at home but also 11-8 on the road, showing they can win in either setting.
Against the spread, Phoenix is 21-18-1 this year and has covered in several of its recent wins. The total has gone Under in four of their last five games, as their defense has held teams under 80 points consistently. With no injuries on the report, they are at full strength heading into this matchup.
Head-to-Head Matchup
Phoenix has controlled this series, winning the last three meetings. Earlier this year, they won 68-62 at home and then 88-72 in Washington. Last season, the two teams split four meetings, but Phoenix has had the upper hand in 2025.
In the last 10 head-to-head games, Phoenix has won six. Against the spread, the teams are even at 5-5. The Over/Under has also been split evenly at 5-5, showing neither side has had a big advantage in totals betting.
Recent history favors the Mercury, especially with how Washington has struggled since July. Phoenix has won by double digits in back-to-back games against the Mystics, and their offensive balance has been too much for Washington’s thin roster.
Betting Prediction
The spread is set at Phoenix -9.5, with the total at 158.5. The Mercury are heavy favorites at -500 on the moneyline, while Washington is a +375 underdog. Phoenix’s recent win streak, strong road record, and healthier lineup all point toward them controlling this game.
Washington has struggled to score consistently and lacks depth due to injuries. Even at home, the Mystics have not shown the ability to keep up with top teams. Phoenix’s offense has been clicking, and their defense has been sharp during this streak. Predicted final score: Phoenix 84, Washington 72. That suggests the Under and a Mercury cover.
Pick: Phoenix -9.5
