The WNBA semifinals head to Phoenix on Friday night as the Mercury host the top-seeded Minnesota Lynx in Game 3. The series is tied 1-1 after a dramatic overtime finish in Minneapolis. Tipoff is set for 9:30 PM ET at PHX Arena, with the Lynx listed as 4.5-point favorites and the total sitting at 158.5.
Minnesota finished first in the West with a 36-10 record and has been strong on the road at 15-8. Phoenix ended the year 29-18, good for third in the West, and has been reliable at home with a 16-8 mark. The Mercury flipped momentum with their 89-83 win in Game 2, pulling off a 20-point comeback to even the series.
Mercury Preview – Confidence rising after big road win
Phoenix showed resilience in Game 2, overcoming a large deficit and forcing overtime on Sami Whitcomb’s clutch three in the final seconds. The Mercury then scored the first six points of overtime to secure the win. That kind of performance has given them confidence heading back home, where they have been steady all season.
Alyssa Thomas continues to drive the Mercury’s attack. She tallied 19 points, 13 assists, and 8 rebounds in Game 2, pushing her series averages to 18.5 points, 10 assists, and 8 rebounds. Her playmaking from the foul-line extended has opened up both shooters and cutters, making her the centerpiece of Phoenix’s offense.
Satou Sabally provided the shooting lift that Phoenix lacked in Game 1. After the Mercury shot just 3-for-23 from three in the opener, Sabally hit five triples on her way to 24 points and nine rebounds in Game 2. Kahleah Copper added perimeter pressure with 8 points and three assists, and bench players gave key minutes to keep energy up during the rally.
The Mercury’s ability to defend home court could be a difference-maker. They took home-court advantage in the first round from New York, winning in Game 2 on the road and closing it out at home in Game 3. That trend has them believing they can do the same against Minnesota.
Lynx Preview – Needing execution to take back control
Minnesota dominated the regular season and opened the playoffs with an 82-69 Game 1 win by clamping down on Phoenix in the fourth quarter. The Lynx looked set for a 2-0 lead in Game 2 but couldn’t hold their advantage late. Now they’ll need to regroup on the road to avoid falling behind in the series.
Napheesa Collier, runner-up in MVP voting, has been productive with 42 points and 15 rebounds through two games. She scored 24 in Game 2 but missed a potential game-winner at the buzzer in regulation. Collier’s two-way presence remains critical for Minnesota’s hopes of advancing.
Courtney Williams has been excellent in the series, averaging over 21 points per game while also tallying 16 assists and 15 rebounds. Her mid-range scoring and ability to push tempo have been steadying factors. Kayla McBride added 21 points in Game 2 and remains Minnesota’s best off-ball option to space the floor.
The Lynx lead the league in field goal percentage (46.9%) and three-point percentage (37.1%). They also rank first in assists at 23 per game with a 1.8 assist-to-turnover ratio. Those strengths should help them respond, but they will need to be sharper in closing quarters than they were in Game 2.
Matchup Breakdown
The teams have split their last four meetings, though Minnesota has won eight of the past 10 overall. Phoenix has been competitive at home, winning both playoff games there this season. Minnesota, however, has been strong away from home with a 15-8 record, so this sets up as a tight battle.
Totals have leaned toward the Under in the series, with the last 10 head-to-heads going 4-6 O/U. Game 1 stayed Under comfortably at 151 points, while Game 2 landed at 172 after overtime. Regulation play suggests lower scoring, but the Mercury’s improved three-point shooting adds some volatility.
The rebounding battle could decide this game. Minnesota ranks seventh in total rebounds at 34.2 per game, while Phoenix is slightly behind at 35.7 but has been more aggressive on the defensive glass. If Collier and Williams can control boards, Minnesota gains an edge, but Thomas and Sabally’s versatility gives Phoenix answers.
Betting Prediction
Oddsmakers have Minnesota -4.5, but Phoenix’s confidence and home performance make them a live underdog. The Lynx are the more efficient team statistically, but the Mercury’s comeback in Game 2 showed their depth and ability to adjust. If Sabally continues to shoot well and Thomas controls pace, Phoenix could steal another win.
The total of 158.5 feels a touch low given Game 2’s overtime surge, but history leans to the Under. In regulation, scoring has been tight, and both teams rely on half-court execution rather than pace. Projected score: Minnesota 81, Phoenix 77. That suggests Minnesota covers and the Under cashes in another close playoff game.
Pick: Lynx -4.5 and Under 158.5
