The 2025 WNBA Finals tip off on Friday night with the Phoenix Mercury visiting the Las Vegas Aces at Michelob ULTRA Arena. The series opener is scheduled for 8:00 PM ET, and both teams come in with plenty of history and championship expectations. Phoenix wrapped up the regular season at 29-18, while Las Vegas secured the No. 2 seed at 32-15 after a strong late-season push.
This matchup features two franchises that have been at the top of the WNBA in recent years. The Mercury and Aces split their regular-season series 2-2, with each side showing it can win at home and on the road. Their most recent game on August 21 saw Las Vegas dominate Phoenix in an 83-61 victory. These Finals now bring together a Phoenix team that rebuilt its roster around a new star core and a Vegas squad chasing its third title in four seasons.
Phoenix Preview – A New Core Leading the Way
Phoenix had to adjust to life without two franchise icons in Diana Taurasi and Brittney Griner, but the front office quickly retooled the roster. Kahleah Copper became the centerpiece, while trades for Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally gave the Mercury an immediate All-WNBA core. Thomas in particular has been a driving force in the postseason, nearly averaging a triple-double with 18.6 points, 9.1 assists, and 8.4 rebounds per game.
The Mercury finished the year at 32-19 overall and were balanced both at home (18-8) and on the road (14-11). Their ability to take care of the basketball has been critical, ranking among the league’s top teams in assist-to-turnover ratio. Phoenix’s defense also tightened in the playoffs, holding both the Liberty and Lynx under their regular scoring averages in elimination games.
In the first round, Phoenix upset the Liberty in four games, overcoming a 30-point effort from Breanna Stewart in the clincher. In the semifinals, they eliminated the No. 1 seed Minnesota Lynx, a series highlighted by clutch performances from Copper and Thomas. While some may point to injuries to Stewart and Napheesa Collier as factors, the Mercury’s ability to capitalize in high-pressure moments cannot be overlooked. Their confidence has only grown as they’ve taken down two top seeds.
Las Vegas Preview – Wilson and Aces Hit Their Stride
The Aces enter the Finals looking to cement themselves as a dynasty. After winning back-to-back championships in 2022 and 2023, they fell short in 2024, losing to the Liberty in the semifinals. This year started with uncertainty after trading away Kelsey Plum and bringing in Jewell Loyd, but the team eventually found its groove. From a .500 record in early August, they ripped off 16 straight wins to close the season 35-17.
A’ja Wilson continues to lead the way, showing why she’s already a four-time MVP. In the playoffs, she is averaging 26 points, 9 rebounds, nearly 3 blocks, and over 2 steals per game. Alongside Wilson, Jackie Young remains one of the league’s most versatile guards, and Chelsea Gray continues to run the offense with her playmaking and Finals experience. Loyd’s scoring adds another layer that defenses must account for.
Las Vegas was especially tough at home, posting a 21-6 record at Michelob ULTRA Arena. Their defense has been strong all season, ranking second in opponent three-point percentage, a key weapon for Phoenix. The Aces also have Finals experience on their side, with Wilson, Gray, and Young already having won multiple championships together. That familiarity with big moments is something they’ll look to lean on in this series.
Key Matchups to Watch
The battle in the frontcourt between Wilson and Thomas will likely decide the series. Wilson has been the league’s best interior scorer, while Thomas controls the tempo as a playmaking forward. Phoenix will need Copper and Sabally to provide consistent scoring to keep pace with the Aces’ big three.
The backcourt also plays a huge role, with Gray and Young matching up against Phoenix’s guards. The Mercury will need steady perimeter shooting to stretch Vegas’s defense, while the Aces will look to use Gray’s vision and Young’s defense to disrupt Phoenix’s ball movement. Turnovers and rebounding may be the two stats that swing close games.
Betting Prediction
Oddsmakers have Las Vegas listed as a 3.5-point favorite in Game 1, with the total set around 159.5. Phoenix has been an underdog most of the postseason but has delivered against expectations, covering spreads and winning outright against top seeds. The Mercury are 26-24-1 against the spread this season, while Las Vegas is 27-24-1 ATS.
The Aces’ experience and home-court advantage give them the upper hand in the opener. Phoenix has been resilient in the playoffs, but Wilson and her supporting cast are locked in and playing their best basketball of the year. Look for Las Vegas to take control late in Game 1 with defense and transition scoring. The under also looks like a strong lean based on recent head-to-head trends, with six of the last ten meetings finishing below the posted total.
Pick: Las Vegas -3.5, Under 159.5
