The Liberty host the Mystics at Barclays Center on Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET. New York is 25-17 and 16-5 at home. Washington is 16-27 and 6-15 on the road.
This is New York’s home finale before the playoffs. The Liberty are locked into the No. 5 seed. Washington closes its season here after dropping nine straight games.
Introduction
New York leads the 2025 series 2-1. The last meeting on Aug. 28 was an 89-63 Liberty win. Earlier meetings were a 85-63 Liberty win on May 30 and an 86-78 Mystics win on June 5.
New York’s fast 9-0 start has cooled due to injuries. Sabrina Ionescu has missed four straight with a toe issue. The Liberty still have Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones available, though Jones has been quiet of late.
Liberty Preview – Tune-Up Time at Home
New York snapped a road skid with an 84-76 win at Seattle. Stewart had 24 points and seven rebounds in that game. Leonie Fiebich added 21 points and helped steady the offense.
Jones scored two points in Seattle and has 13 total points across her last three. The frontcourt still draws attention and frees driving lanes. With Ionescu out, Natasha Cloud has handled more on-ball work and set up teammates.
Team metrics show a defense-first group. New York holds foes to 42.2% shooting from the field (No. 2). From three, they allow 31.2% (No. 1), which matches their perimeter size and closeouts.
The Liberty’s offense sits mid-pack. They shoot 43.9% from the field and 32.9% from three. They average 77.4 points per game and lean on strong third and fourth quarters to finish.
On the glass, New York grabs 35.7 rebounds per game allowed on defense (No. 12) but keeps opponents to one shot with good positioning. They post 25.7 defensive boards per game (No. 3). Turnovers are reasonable at 13.8 per game.
Against Washington, matchups favor Stewart and the wings. New York won the last meeting by 26 with defense and pace control. If Jones finds rhythm early, New York’s half-court looks become simple.
Mystics Preview – Youth Minutes and Reps
Washington has shifted to a youth focus. Rookie guard Sonia Citron leads the team at 15.0 points per game. She scored 17 against Indiana on Sunday and set the franchise single-season points mark.
The Mystics were held to 27 second-half points in that game. The offense has leaned on Citron’s drives, Kiki Iriafen’s inside touches, and Shakira Austin’s mid-post work. They also start Aari McDonald or Abby Clark for pace and point of attack defense.
Washington shoots 43.9% from the field (No. 7) and 32.9% from three (No. 10). They average 77.4 points per game (No. 11). Free throws are a strength at 15.8 makes and 20.9 attempts per game (both No. 1), which can keep them close if whistles come.
Defense has slipped late. Opponents average 80.5 points per game (No. 6 allowed by New York, but Washington’s own defensive ranks trend lower across rebounds and steals). Washington’s turnover number is 15.4 per game (No. 11), which can turn into Liberty run-outs.
Injuries remain a factor. Jacy Sheldon is out with an ankle. Georgia Amoore remains out for the season with an ACL injury. Depth at guard and wing has been stretched.
ATS marks show the gap. Washington is 20-23 ATS with a 19-23-1 O/U record. New York is 15-25-2 ATS with a 17-24-1 O/U record, but the Liberty are strong straight-up at home.
Matchup and Trends
Head-to-head favors New York, 9-1 over the last 10. The Aug. 28 game finished well Under the total due to New York’s defense and Washington’s scoring droughts. New York’s perimeter defense matches well against Washington’s young backcourt.
The market lists New York -14.5 and 159.5 for the total. Moneyline sits around -1400 for New York and +800 for Washington. The spread is large, but the season series margin and Washington’s form explain it.
Betting Prediction
New York’s defense and home form point to a safe win path. Stewart should carry scoring with Cloud and Fiebich spacing. If Jones gets early touches, the paint edge grows.
Washington needs free throws and turnovers forced to hang inside the number. The Liberty’s ball security and half-court pace reduce that variance at home. Projected score: Liberty 86, Mystics 71. That supports New York and a lean Under if the pace slows late.
Pick: Liberty -14.5
