The New York Liberty will host the Connecticut Sun on Monday night at Barclays Center. Tip-off is set for 7:00 PM ET as New York looks to get back on track after a rough stretch. The Liberty sit at 22-15, while Connecticut comes in at 9-27.
These teams have met three times this season. Connecticut won two of those matchups, including an 87-78 victory earlier this month. New York crushed Connecticut 100-52 back in June, but since then the Sun have improved while the Liberty have been slowed by injuries.
Liberty Preview – Searching for Stability Without Stars
The Liberty started the season with a 9-0 run, but injuries have changed their outlook. Breanna Stewart has been out since late July with a knee injury, and Sabrina Ionescu missed the recent loss to Atlanta with an ankle problem. Without them, New York’s offense has dropped to its lowest output of the season.
Jonquel Jones continues to be the centerpiece inside, averaging 11 points and 8 rebounds in the last game. Emma Meesseman added 10 points and four assists, but the Liberty lack the scoring punch they had earlier in the season. Marine Johannes and Leonie Fiebich are filling in on the perimeter, though their efficiency has been inconsistent.
Defensively, the Liberty remain strong, ranking second in opponent field goal percentage at 42.2%. However, their turnover issues are a problem. They committed 14 turnovers against Atlanta and have been giving away possessions at key moments. With their offense shorthanded, every extra mistake has been costly.
At Barclays Center, New York has been reliable with a 14-5 home record. Still, they are just 13-22-2 against the spread overall, which shows how often they are overvalued by oddsmakers. The Liberty will need sharper execution to cover a double-digit line in this matchup.
Sun Preview – Momentum Building Late
The Sun have pulled out of the league’s basement with three straight wins. Their 9-27 record is still near the bottom of the standings, but this is their best stretch of the season. Connecticut is playing with renewed energy and confidence as they head into the final weeks.
Tina Charles has been the leader, scoring 23 points with 10 rebounds in her last game. She also recorded her 200th career double-double, a new WNBA record. Marina Mabrey has stepped up as well, averaging 20 points and eight assists in the win over Chicago. Bria Hartley added 23 points on near-perfect shooting, showing the team’s offensive depth.
Connecticut has been a strong team for bettors, going 20-16 against the spread this season. They have also covered in five of their last six games. The downside is their road record, as they are just 3-15 away from home. Still, their current form suggests they are more dangerous now than at any point earlier this season.
The Sun are averaging 75.7 points per game, which ranks 13th in the league. However, their defense has improved, allowing 81.6 points per game, putting them in the middle of the pack. They rely heavily on Charles inside but have shown better ball movement and three-point shooting in recent wins.
Head-to-Head Matchup
New York leads the season series 2-1, but the results have been very different. The Liberty’s 100-52 win in June was one of their best performances of the season. Since then, Connecticut has flipped the script, winning the last two meetings.
The Sun won 78-62 on August 1 and followed it up with an 87-78 victory on August 3. In both games, Tina Charles was the difference-maker inside, and the Liberty could not match her scoring presence without Stewart. The recent trend favors Connecticut as they look to even the season series.
Betting Prediction
The line sits with New York favored by -12.5, with the total at 164.5. The Liberty have the talent edge on paper, but without Stewart and Ionescu, this number feels inflated. Connecticut has been covering spreads and comes in with momentum from a three-game win streak.
New York still has the advantage at home, but Connecticut has won two straight in this series and has the league’s hottest veteran in Tina Charles. Expect a competitive game where the Liberty may win, but Connecticut should keep it close. A final score around 82-75 Liberty seems most likely, making the Sun the better play against the spread.
Pick: Connecticut +12.5
