The WNBA semifinals continue Tuesday night as the Minnesota Lynx host the Phoenix Mercury at Target Center. Tip-off is set for 7:30 PM ET. Minnesota leads the best-of-five series 1-0 after taking Game 1 by a score of 82-69. The Lynx used a strong fourth quarter to secure the win, outscoring Phoenix 23-10 down the stretch.
Oddsmakers have Minnesota listed as a 7.5-point favorite with the total sitting near 158.5. The Lynx finished the regular season 36-10 and the Mercury ended at 29-18. Minnesota has been dominant at home, while Phoenix is looking to steal a road win before the series shifts to Arizona.
Lynx Preview – Can the Guards Set the Tone Again?
Minnesota has built its season on defense and control. They hold opponents to 76.3 points per game, ranking among the league’s best. Their field goal defense is second in the WNBA, and they are excellent at limiting free throws. This showed in Game 1 when they tightened up in the fourth quarter to close strong.
Courtney Williams was the star in the opener with 23 points, eight rebounds, and seven assists. It was her first 20-point game in more than a month. Williams’ energy and shot-making sparked Minnesota, and her play on both ends created a steady flow. Kayla McBride backed her up with 21 points, while Napheesa Collier added 18 points and nine boards. That balanced trio gives the Lynx multiple scoring outlets.
The Lynx are also deep. Coach Cheryl Reeve praised reserve Maria Kliundikova, who had only four points and four rebounds but finished with a plus-14 in just eight minutes. Minnesota’s bench does not always light up the box score, but their minutes matter. At home, where they are 22-3 this season, the Lynx have the confidence to close games with poise.
Mercury Preview – Need the Threes to Fall
Phoenix showed fight in Game 1. They were tied 59-59 through three quarters before running out of steam late. Their biggest issue was shooting. The Mercury went just 3-for-23 from three-point range, a season-low mark. To even the series, they will need more efficiency from deep and stronger work on the boards to limit second-chance points.
Kahleah Copper led Phoenix with 22 points on 10-of-23 shooting, while Alyssa Thomas added 18 points, seven assists, and eight rebounds. Thomas was aggressive on drives and made an impact on defense, but the team struggled to spread the floor. Satou Sabally had only 10 points on 3-of-11 shooting and missed all five of her three-point tries. She is key in Game 2 as Phoenix cannot afford another quiet performance from one of their top scorers.
Coach Nate Tibbetts stressed the need to box out and finish possessions. The Mercury also need to stay aggressive downhill to create better kick-out chances. They want to play fast but must balance that with efficient shot selection. If the threes fall closer to their season average, Phoenix has a chance to push Minnesota to the wire.
Betting Prediction
Game 1 stayed well Under the total of 159.5, finishing at 151 points. That continues a trend between these teams, with the Under hitting in seven of their last 10 matchups. Minnesota’s defense at home is tough to crack, and Phoenix’s shooting woes may not fully correct in just two days.
The Lynx are 27-20-1 ATS on the season and have been one of the most reliable teams against the number at home. Phoenix sits just under .500 ATS. With Minnesota’s balance and depth, they look well-positioned to defend home court again. A projected score of Minnesota 80, Phoenix 70 suggests value on the Lynx -7.5 and another Under in the total market.
Pick: Lynx -7.5
