The WNBA Finals continue Wednesday night as the Las Vegas Aces visit the Phoenix Mercury for Game 3. Tip-off is set for 8:00 PM ET at Footprint Center. The Aces hold a 2-0 lead in the best-of-seven series after two convincing home wins. Phoenix now returns home needing to win to stay alive in the series.
Las Vegas controlled both games in Las Vegas, winning 89-86 in Game 1 and 91-78 in Game 2. The Aces have been the league’s top team since midseason, carrying a 16-game regular-season win streak into the playoffs. Phoenix, meanwhile, has battled through two tough series, including wins over New York and Minnesota, but now faces a much deeper opponent in Las Vegas.
LV Preview – Aces Look to Stay in Control
The Las Vegas Aces enter Game 3 with a 37-17 record and a ton of confidence. A’ja Wilson continues to be the difference-maker on both ends, recording 28 points and 14 rebounds in Game 2. Wilson has now posted 25 career playoff double-doubles, and her dominance in the paint has made Phoenix’s defense adjust every possession.
Jackie Young has also been on fire, scoring 32 points in Game 2 and 30 in Game 1. Her outside shooting and quick drives have made it difficult for Phoenix to trap or double Wilson inside. The Aces are averaging 85.5 points per game in the postseason, while shooting over 45% from the field and 36% from three.
On defense, Las Vegas has been just as sharp. The Aces lead all playoff teams in blocked shots and are holding opponents to under 80 points per game. The smaller, faster lineups around Wilson have allowed the Aces to switch defensively and run in transition. Chelsea Gray and Kelsey Plum have each provided stability and scoring in key moments, giving coach Becky Hammon’s team several offensive options.
Las Vegas is also one of the league’s best free-throw shooting teams, ranking second in the WNBA at over 81%. That consistency at the line has helped them close out tight games late. The Aces are 28-25-1 against the spread this season and have covered in five of their last seven games overall.
PHO Preview – Mercury Look to Defend Home Court
The Phoenix Mercury return home with urgency. At 32-21 on the year, Phoenix has been strong at Footprint Center, posting an 18-8 home record during the regular season. They’ll need that home advantage to help slow down a red-hot Las Vegas team. The Mercury have been through plenty of adversity this postseason but have proven capable of bouncing back after tough losses.
Kahleah Copper led Phoenix in Game 2 with 23 points, while Satou Sabally added 22 points and eight rebounds. The Mercury struggled from beyond the arc, shooting just 17.8% on 5-of-28 attempts. Alyssa Thomas, who has been the team’s most consistent player throughout the playoffs, was limited to 10 points after battling foul trouble most of the night.
Head coach Nate Tibbetts said after Game 2 that keeping Thomas out of foul trouble will be key moving forward. When Thomas is active on defense, Phoenix can switch more easily on Wilson and keep her away from deep post position. The Mercury will also look for better ball movement after committing 14 turnovers in Game 2.
Defensively, Phoenix must contain Las Vegas’ second-chance points. The Aces grabbed several offensive rebounds that led to easy baskets in Game 2. Expect the Mercury to increase their tempo early in Game 3 and get Copper and Sabally more transition opportunities. Phoenix is 27-25-1 against the spread this season and has covered in three of its last five home games.
Betting Prediction
Phoenix is listed as a 4.5-point home favorite with the total set at 163.5. The Aces are 23-3 in their last 26 games and have covered the spread in four of their past five matchups with the Mercury. The over has hit in six of the last ten head-to-head meetings between these teams, and both offenses have shown they can score quickly when in rhythm.
Las Vegas has been dominant behind Wilson and Young, and their balanced offense continues to create matchup issues for Phoenix. The Mercury will likely play better at home, but the Aces’ depth and playoff experience make them the more reliable side. Expect Phoenix to fight early, but Las Vegas’ consistency should help them pull away late. A fast pace and strong shooting night from both teams make the over a solid play as well.
Pick: Las Vegas +4.5 and Over 163.5
