The Dallas Wings will host the Phoenix Mercury on Thursday night at College Park Center in Arlington, Texas. The game tips at 8:00 PM ET and marks the regular season finale for both clubs. Phoenix comes in at 27-16, already locked into the No. 4 seed in the playoffs. Dallas sits at 9-34, the league’s worst record, and will not advance to the postseason.
The Mercury are preparing for their first-round matchup with the New York Liberty starting this weekend, while Dallas is closing a rough season. Both teams will look to end the regular season on a positive note, but they enter with different focuses. Phoenix is working on health and rotations ahead of the playoffs, while Dallas is looking at development and ending the year strong.
Wings Preview – Finishing a Rough Season at Home
The Wings have lost 10 straight games and 15 of their last 16. They are 5-16 at home this season and have struggled against Western Conference opponents. Their ATS mark sits at 19-24, with totals hitting the Over in 23 of 43 games. Dallas has played more competitive at home but has not been able to close games late.
Paige Bueckers has been the bright spot. The rookie leads Dallas with 19.1 points, 5.3 assists, and 1.6 steals per game. In their last outing, she produced 18 points, seven assists, and six rebounds in a 91-77 loss to Los Angeles. Myisha Hines-Allen recorded a double-double with 15 points and 13 rebounds, while Maddy Siegrist added 13 points.
The team continues to deal with heavy injuries. Arike Ogunbowale, a four-time All-Star, has been sidelined since Aug. 10 with a knee issue. Several others, including Luisa Geiselsöder, Ji’Ayirra Quinerly, and Li Yueru, are out for the year. The short-handed roster has forced younger players into extended minutes.
Mercury Preview – Playoff Focus and Rotation Depth
Phoenix is coming off an 88-83 loss to the Los Angeles Sparks on Tuesday. They pulled starters late in the game once it was clear their playoff seed was locked. Even so, Alyssa Thomas logged another triple-double, finishing with 10 points, 11 rebounds, and 10 assists. She has recorded eight triple-doubles this season, more than the rest of the league combined.
Satou Sabally continues to provide scoring power, putting up 24 points in the last contest. Kahleah Copper and Sami Whitcomb have also stepped in with solid production. The Mercury are 12-9 on the road this year and 21-21-1 ATS overall. Their totals trend Under, at 17-24-2, but matchups with Dallas have leaned Over.
Phoenix’s bench played heavy minutes against Los Angeles and will likely do so again Thursday. Coach Nate Tibbetts praised the reserves after their strong fourth quarter earlier this week. The game gives Phoenix a chance to rest key players while keeping rotation players fresh ahead of the postseason.
Head-to-Head and Key Numbers
Phoenix and Dallas have met three times this season, with the Mercury winning two. The most recent was a 102-72 Phoenix win on July 7. The Wings did take the July 3 meeting 98-89 at home, but the Mercury also won 93-80 back in June.
The head-to-head history leans to the Over, with seven of the last 10 matchups going past the posted total. Phoenix has averaged 98.3 points per game in those three meetings this season, while Dallas averaged 80.3. That 18-point scoring gap shows how much control Phoenix has had in the series.
Betting Prediction
Current odds list Phoenix -5.5 with a total of 165.5. The Mercury average 83.0 points per game while giving up 81.6. Dallas allows 88.3 points per game, the highest in the league, while scoring just 75.9. That combination makes for a difficult matchup for the Wings.
The line reflects Dallas’ home struggles and Phoenix’s depth. Expect the Mercury’s second unit to still have success against a Wings team missing several starters. Trends also point to an Over, as these teams have gone above the total in seven of their last 10 meetings.
Projected score: Mercury 92, Wings 80. That supports Phoenix -5.5 and the Over 165.5. Dallas will fight, but their limited roster makes it tough to keep pace with Phoenix’s balance and playoff-level depth.
Pick: Mercury -5.5 and Over 165.5
