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NFL Week 7 Vikings at Lions Free Pick

Are Oddsmakers Showing Recency Bias in Favoring Minnesota on the Road

It could be argued that there is value on both teams heading into the NFL week 7 Vikings at Lions free pick. Detroit is getting +2.5 points at home but was a couple controversial calls from getting a win in Lambeau on Monday night. The Vikings will be facing a Lions team that is on short rest, but Minnesota has looked good in winning two straight. The total is set at 43 in this NFC North tilt.

Are Minnesota’s Issues Behind Them?

NFL week 8 Vikings at Lions free pick
Nothing cheers up a disgruntled player like a 3 TD day as Diggs had last week.

It seems like it was almost a different season when Vikings fans wanted to FedEx a struggling Kirk Cousins out of town and star players like Stefon Diggs wanted to jump off the sinking ship. What a difference a couple wins makes though. Heading into the NFL week 7 Vikings at Lions free pick, Minnesota is a road favorite of -2.5 and all seems right in Skol Country.

The Vikings have disposed of a couple NFC East opponents in getting a 28-10 win at the Giants and an impressive 38-20 home win over Philadlephia last week. Cousins has thrown just 12 incompletions in the last two games, completing 44 passes with 6 TD and 1 INT. Detroit was good enough to win vs. the gold and green last week, just not the black and white. The Lions held Aaron Rodgers to 283 yards with 2 TD and 1 INT on Monday.

Mike Zimmer’s team is 0-2 on the road vs. NFC North opponents this season. Cousins was just 14/32 with two costly picks at Green Bay while star RB Dalvin Cook was limited to 14 carries for 35 yards vs. the Bears. The Vikings defense has looked much better the past two weeks though, especially against the run where they’ve climbed to 3rd best in the league.

Detroit Faces Division Foe on a Short Week

NFL week 7 Vikings at Lions free pick
Stafford had his share of struggles vs. the Vikings defense last season.

The NFL week 8 Vikings at Lions free pick puts Detroit in a tough spot. They not only have to face division opponents in consecutive weeks, they have to do so on a short week. An interesting question ahead of this one is if Monday’s win being taken away by the referees – does it put Detroit in a rut, or fire them up with an ‘us against everybody’ mentality?

The Lions may have a hard time running the ball on Sunday considering Kerryon Johnson had 13 carries for just 34 yards vs. Green Bay. Minnesota is also 3rd best in the NFL vs. the rush. Detroit does have a top 10 passing offense though even though Matthew Stafford hasn’t thrown for over 300 yards in any of the last four games.

For whatever reason, the Vikings defense matches up well with Detroit as the Lions lost 9-24 and 9-27 in last year’s two meetings. The Lions didn’t score a single TD in either of those meetings. Stafford had 315 total passing yards in the two while Cousins was 21/28 for 253 with 3/0 in the win in Detroit.

NFL Week 8 Vikings at Lions Free Pick

The Minnesota defense should be able to step up again in this one with a) the success they had vs. Detroit last season and b) the Lions being on a short week. The Vikings have allowed 16 points or less in 4 of 6 games this year. With Cousins being a question mark on the road in conference games, a play on the ‘under’ is looking good here.

Pick: Vikings / Lions *Under* 43

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Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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