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NFL Week 11 Patriots at Eagles Free Pick

New England the Play Trying to Avenge Super Bowl LII Loss?

When New England arrives for the NFL week 11 Patriots at Eagles free pick they’ll be greeted by a statue of Nick Foles to remind them of the defining moment of Super Bowl LII. Doug Pederson’s decision to go with the “Philly Special” captured the 1st world championship for Philadelphia and gave Tom Brady and Bill Belichick their 3rd loss in the title game. Forget cheesesteak, it’s revenge on the menu as New England is up to a -4.5 favorite from Lincoln Financial.

New England Looked Human Last Game

NFL week 11 Patriots at Eagles free pick
Can New England get a semblance of a running game going Sunday?

The Patriots are almost a weird favorite on the road in this game. On one hand, they suffered their first defeat of the season last game, dropping a 20-37 decision at Baltimore. Then again, the Patriots are coming off a bye week and everybody knows the success that Belichick has with an extra week to prepare for an opponent.

At the very least, Philadelphia should have confidence in the fact that Tom Brady has looked mortal this season. New England threw the ball 46 times vs. Baltimore but Brady was still held under 300 yards for the 3rd straight game. Brady also has an interception in 5 of the last 6 games. The Patriots have one of the worst rushing games in the league at just over 90 yards per contest, but the Eagles have a top 5 rushing defense. New England will have to win the NFL week 11 Patriots at Eagles free pick on the shoulders of their veteran QB.

The New England defense also gave up 211 yards on the ground to the Ravens the last game. Philly is a little hobbled in their back field, but still rank 11th in the league on the ground. The big question is if the game against the Ravens was just an anomaly for the Pats. Their defense had allowed 14 points or less in every game of the season prior.

Can Eagles Find Their Offense?

NFL week 11 Patriots at Eagles free pick
Wentz finally gets to show what he can do vs. New England after being injured for the Super Bowl

Philadelphia has won 4 out of their last 6, mostly due to an efficient offense that has put up 30+ points in half of those games. One of the best reasons to like Philadelphia and the points on Sunday is because they are playing at home, boasting a 3-1 record at the Linc on the season. Most of the issues Pederson’s squad has had this season have come on the road in losses at Atlanta (20-24), at Minnesota (20-38), and at Dallas (10-37).

Philadelphia does have a top 10 total yardage defense and are #4 in the NFL vs. the run. The total in Sunday’s game is 44.5 but Philadelphia has a good chance to put the clamps on the Patriots after holding the last two opponents to 14 points or less. When the Eagles get in trouble on defense, it’s usually against the run as the Cowboys ran for 189 and the Vikings 122 in their 37+ point games. New England doesn’t have that kind of rushing attack, but then again Kirk Cousins did throw for 333 and 4 TD’s in Minnesota’s week 6 win over Philadelphia.

The Eagles offense takes a bit of a hit on Sunday with the news that Jordan Howard will be out with a shoulder injury. Howard had 80+ yards and a TD in each of the last two games. The team will rely more on rookie Miles Sanders and newly acquired Jay Ajayi will get some touches as well. The big question is what Belichick has in store to disrupt Carson Wentz as New England has had an extra week to prepare with last week’s bye.

NFL Week 11 Patriots at Eagles Free Pick

The Patriots are 14-5 after a bye under Belichick and Brady’s record with an extra week to prepare is 13-4. Wentz isn’t the young QB that the Patriots head coach typically causes headaches for (see: Sam Darnold) but you can bet the Patriots have a few game plan wrinkles for the Eagles signal caller. 4.5 points is tough to lay against a 1st place team on the road. but New England should be a TD or more better in this one.

Pick: Patriots -4.5

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Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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