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Monday May 6th AL Free Pick: Twins at Blue Jays

Good Value on Minnesota as Road Underdogs at Toronto?

The Twins begin a 3-game set with Toronto as +100 underdogs in the May 6th AL free pick. Minnesota dropped 2 of 3 in the Bronx over the weekend to the Yankees, but still maintain a 2 game lead over Cleveland in the Central. The Blue Jays meanwhile have dropped 5 of 6, their lone win over that span being a 1-0 squeaker vs. Texas. The pitching matchup also seems to favor Minnesota but is heading to The 6 alone enough to deter bettors from the Twins?

Perez Dealing for Minnesota

May 6th AL free pick
Can Nelson Cruz get the Twins offense going in a very tough hitting matchup?

Rocco Baldelli sends Martin Perez to the hill for Minnesota in the May 6th AL free pick. The left-hander is a somewhat surprising 4-0 on the season with a 3.41 ERA. Perez aims for his fourth straight win on Monday and has also allowed 1ER or less in 4 of his last 6 starts in 2019. Perez made one start last season vs. Toronto and it wasn’t pretty as he gave up 4ER including 3HR in just 4.0 IP. Blue Jays batters have a collective .383 BA vs. Perez and that’s another huge reason why the Jays are favored in this one.

The Twins have won 3 of their last 5 and the fact that they scored 21 total runs in those victories is somewhat surprising. That’s because Minnesota only has three batters hitting above .238 in the last 7 days which includes Jonathan Schoop (.350), Marwin Gonzalez (.304), and Nelson Cruz (.261). Minnesota is just 1-4 in their last 5 road games, but they have gone 10-3 their last 13 vs. a RH starter. Cruz has also gone 6-11 (.545) vs. tonight’s Blue Jays starter Marcus Stroman so the potential for offense is there at least (O/U 8.5).

Stroman Looks for a Bounce Back Game

May 6th AL free pick
Marcus Stroman is an animal when pitching at home.

While Minnesota is confident in the starter they send out for the May 6th AL free pick, Toronto may suddenly have some questions surrounding Marcus Stroman. For the most part, the right-hander has been solid in 2019 even though his 1-4 record might not indicate so. Stroman’s ERA is just 2.20 on the season and he’s allowed a total of 1ER in three starts prior to a May 1st contest with the Angels. In that game, Stroman allowed 4ER in just 3.1 IP. Getting back to the Rogers Centre should be good for Stroman, The right-hander has allowed a total of 2ER in four starts at home this season.

The Blue Jays are 4th in ERA in the majors this season, and are treading water at 6GB in the AL East. Toronto’s offense however is 24th or worse in every major hitting category. The Jays have scored 2 runs or less in 3 of the last 4 although those games were all on the road. The Blue Jays as a team have hit just 4HR over the last 7 days and only Randal Grichuk and Rowdy Tellez are hitting above .267 over that span.

May 6th AL Free Pick Betting

The side for this game could legitimately go either way with the Twins being the better team on paper but Toronto getting an edge coming home for the first time in 6 games. What is certain is that both starters have been dealing while each team’s offense could want a little more on the offensive side of things. Couple that with a total that is a bit on the high side and low scoring becomes the play.

  • Under is 5-1 in Stroman’s last 6 home starts
  • Under is 7-3 in Blue Jays last 10 overall
  • Under is 16-5 in Blue Jays last 21 home games

AL Free Pick: Twins / Blue Jays *Under* 8.5

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Carl Taylor

Every loss is a chance to learn a lesson. That being said, wins are so much more enjoyable. Follow along to tap into the wisdom I've learned from 20 years as a sports bettor. Follow along on Twitter for more picks and DFS news @dailydogsports.

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