New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays – MLB Preview – July 28, 2025

The New York Yankees welcome the Tampa Bay Rays to Yankee Stadium for the start of a four-game series on Monday night. First pitch is set for 7:05PM ET. The season series is tied 5-5, and this matchup will be important for both teams as they try to stay in the playoff picture.
New York enters at 57-48 and sits above .500 at home with a 31-21 record. Tampa Bay is 53-53 and has fallen back to a .500 mark for the first time since late May. The Rays dropped two of three in Cincinnati, while the Yankees avoided a sweep with a 4-3 win over Philadelphia on Sunday. This series also leads into Thursday’s trade deadline, which could influence lineup decisions as the week goes on.
The Yankees made news last week by trading for Ryan McMahon from the Rockies. He’s hit .342 over his last 11 games and made a strong impact in his first two games in pinstripes. McMahon drove in two runs Sunday and added three key plays on defense. New York is also missing Aaron Judge and Clarke Schmidt, but they’ve gotten contributions from depth players and their bullpen.
Yankees Preview – Trying to Stay in the AL Race Without Judge
New York is trying to stay close in the AL East and wild card race. They’re 4-7 in their last 11 games and have dropped four of their last five home games. The offense averages 5.17 runs per game, but Judge being out changes the lineup. McMahon has helped, but others like Giancarlo Stanton and Gleyber Torres need to step up.
Rookie Cam Schlittler will make his third career start. He’s allowed five earned runs over 10.1 innings in his first two outings. In his last game, he held Toronto to two runs over five innings. With the trade deadline coming, this could also be a chance to raise his trade value or earn more time in the rotation.
The Yankees bullpen has been solid. They have a 3.73 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Devin Williams has been steady in the closer role, and Tim Hill has been reliable from the left side. Jonathan Loaisiga and Ian Hamilton are also seeing high-leverage chances. New York will likely lean on them again if the starter exits early.
Rays Preview – Searching for a Turnaround at the Plate
Tampa Bay has struggled badly over the past few weeks. They are 7-18 in their last 25 games and just dropped a series to the Reds. They’ve been shut down on offense, getting three hits or fewer in 11 games this year. Brandon Lowe remains on the injured list, and the lineup has lacked production without him.
Drew Rasmussen starts for the Rays. He’s 7-5 with a 2.93 ERA and has been solid all year. He’s posted a 2.60 ERA over his last 12 starts but has not earned a win in his past four outings. Rasmussen has been dominant in his career against the Yankees, with a 0.34 ERA in five games and 13 scoreless innings in his last two appearances in New York.
The Rays’ pitching staff has carried them. Their starters own a 3.84 ERA, while the bullpen holds a 3.93 ERA. Garrett Cleavinger, Pete Fairbanks, and Bryan Baker have been steady arms, and Manuel Rodriguez has a 2.10 ERA. But without run support, the bullpen has been overworked. Tampa Bay has struck out 43 times in the last four games.
Betting Prediction
This game is nearly a pick’em, with Tampa Bay listed around -105 and the Yankees around -115. The total is set at 8.5 runs. New York is the more reliable offense, especially at home, but the Rays have the better starting pitcher on the mound. Rasmussen’s career numbers against the Yankees are hard to ignore.
If Tampa Bay can get just enough offense, Rasmussen should be able to carry the team deep into the game. The Yankees are missing key bats and relying on a rookie starter who hasn’t pitched deep into a game yet. Expect a low-scoring game with the Rays having the edge in pitching. Final score prediction: Rays 4, Yankees 3.
Pick: Rays -105




