The Cincinnati Reds continue their road trip with a Friday night game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park. First pitch is set for 6:40 PM ET. Cincinnati comes in at 60-56, holding onto hope in the National League playoff race. Pittsburgh sits at 50-66 and is playing for pride and player development down the stretch.
This is game two of a four-game series. The Pirates took the opener 7-0 behind a strong outing from Paul Skenes. Cincinnati turns to rookie Chase Burns, still searching for his first major league win. The Pirates counter with Mitch Keller, who has been the team’s most consistent starter since June. The Reds are 27-30 on the road, while the Pirates are 33-27 at home.
Reds Preview – Rookie Arm Looks for First Win
Chase Burns enters this start with an 0-3 record and a 6.04 ERA over 28 1/3 innings. The right-hander has shown elite strikeout numbers, recording double-digit strikeouts in three straight starts before his weather-shortened outing on August 3. His fastball has reached triple digits, hitting 100 mph or more a dozen times in a game against the Dodgers on July 28.
While the strikeout numbers are impressive, Burns has struggled with home runs and hard contact. Of the 30 hits he has allowed, 13 have gone for extra bases, including eight homers. The Reds have lost six of the seven games he has started, a stretch that began when he was called up after Hunter Greene’s injury.
Offensively, Cincinnati averages 4.49 runs per game, but they have been shut out twice in their last five games, including Thursday night. Injuries to key starters like Greene, Nick Lodolo, and Brandon Williamson have forced the team to lean heavily on their bullpen, which has a 3.78 ERA but has allowed 13 runs in the last three games. The Reds have been an under team all year, hitting it in 59 of 96 games.
Pirates Preview – Keller Leads the Way
Mitch Keller takes the mound for Pittsburgh with a 5-10 record and a 3.89 ERA. His numbers have been much better since June, posting a 3.56 ERA over 55 2/3 innings. Keller has won his last four decisions and has not taken a loss since June 21. In his last outing, he gave up five runs in Colorado but still earned the win as the Pirates scored nine runs.
Keller’s history against Cincinnati has been mixed. In 18 career starts, he is 3-6 with a 5.75 ERA. The last time he faced the Reds was on May 19, when he gave up just one earned run over six innings in a 7-1 loss. He will need to keep the ball in the park, as the Reds have had success against him when they generate power.
The Pirates’ offense ranks last in the majors in OPS (.651) and slugging percentage (.347) and has scored the fewest runs in baseball (414). They average only 3.57 runs per game but have found ways to win close contests lately. The bullpen has been a steady group, posting a 3.70 ERA with strong late-inning arms like Dennis Santana and Isaac Mattson helping to close games.
Recent Trends and Matchup Notes
Cincinnati has gone 6-4 against Pittsburgh in their last 10 meetings, but the Pirates have taken three of the last four. The under has been dominant in this matchup, hitting in seven of the last 10 games between these teams. The Reds have also seen the under in five of their last six overall.
Pittsburgh has been one of the best run line teams in baseball, covering in 49 of their last 78 games. They have also been profitable in first-five-inning bets at home, winning 21 of their last 41 F5 moneyline plays. Cincinnati, meanwhile, has been more successful on the moneyline than the run line recently, winning 30 of their last 53 games outright.
Betting Prediction
The Reds enter as slight -115 favorites, with the Pirates at -105 and the total set at 7.5 runs. Burns’ strikeout ability is impressive, but his home run problem is a clear concern. Keller has the edge in experience and is in strong form, giving Pittsburgh a solid chance to grab another win at home.
Both teams have leaned toward the under, and with two pitchers capable of racking up strikeouts, runs could be at a premium. Pittsburgh’s recent home performance and run line value make them a strong underdog pick. Predicted final score: Pirates 4, Reds 3.
Pick: Pirates +1.5
