The Jaguars at Chiefs betting matchup for Saturday’s AFC divisional round features two teams that met in week 10 with Kansas City picking up a 27-17 win and a push on the -10 point spread. K.C. (14-3) has gone 7-1 since that meeting with their lone loss coming 27-24 to the Bengals at home in week 13.
Jacksonville (10-8) took the double digit loss in the first meeting with the Chiefs, but this is also a different Jaguars team that has also won 7 of their last 8. This young Jags squad survived their first taste of the postseason last week in a 31-30 win over the Chargers, but can they rediscover that magic going on the road to Arrowhead as +9 point underdogs?
Jacksonville Rolling Forward
Say what you want about Jacksonville’s chances on the road Saturday, this is a team building valuable experience for the future. The Jaguars have done a ton of growing this year, starting the season 2-6 and then rebounding to win five straight down the stretch for an unlikely playoff berth.
The Jaguars at Chiefs betting matchup will really be Jacksonville’s 3rd win-or-go-home in a row as their 20-16 victory over Tennessee in week 18 (on a fumble recovery TD late in the 4th quarter) decided the AFC South. The Jags then came back from a 27-0 deficit in the wild card round to send the Chargers home 31-30.
Second year QB Trevor Lawrence showed some obvious postseason debut jitters last week with 4 INTs in the first half against L.A., but he buckled down to throw 4 TD passes as well. Lawrence was a decent 29/40 for 259 yards and 2 TDs in the first meeting with the Chiefs, but just having the experience of playing in K.C. should be very valuable for the rematch.
Will Chiefs Be Looking Ahead
Jacksonville is definitely a team on the rise, but will the Chiefs get caught looking past them on Saturday? After all, many people still identify the Jaguars as the team that had the worst record in the NFL the past two years and you know Kansas City is looking for revenge on either Buffalo or Cincinnati in the AFC Championship Game.
The Chiefs did have the bye last week as the #1 seed, and Andy Reid has an 87.1% winning percentage in over 30 regular season and postseason games after an off week. KC did struggle to a 20-17 OT win over the Titans (as -14 point home favorites) following their bye this year though, a game in which Tennessee had just 57 yards passing.
It almost goes without saying, but look for another huge game from Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes in this matchup. He not only threw for 331 yards and 4 TDs in the first meeting with the Jaguars, but Jacksonville is also a bottom 5 team vs. the pass this season. Mahomes has also thrown 3+ TD passes in 8 of his last 9 home games in January.
Free Jaguars at Chiefs Betting Pick
The lean on the side would go towards Jacksonville as high as +10 in some books. Although Mahomes has plenty of weapons, this also might be a game where the Chiefs miss the explosiveness of Tyreek Hill. The biggest concern is K.C. thinking this game is a given, and struggling more than they should while looking ahead to the Bengals or Bills.
The best play here though seems to be on the total, which has jumped slightly to 53. There is a possible light rain, but if they have to both of these QBs will throw the football 35+ times and usually with some success.
Free Pick: Over 53