The Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves meet in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals on Tuesday, May 20. The game tips off at 8:30 PM ET from Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. This is the first time Oklahoma City has reached this stage since 2016, while Minnesota is back in the conference finals for the second year in a row.
The teams split their four-game regular season series, with each team winning once on the road. Minnesota won the most recent meeting in overtime, 131-128, back in February. The Thunder just wrapped up a seven-game battle with the Denver Nuggets, while the Timberwolves have been off since eliminating the Warriors in five games. Oklahoma City is favored by 7.5 points with the total set at 217.0.
OKC Preview – Quick Turnaround After Game 7 Win
Oklahoma City finished the regular season 68-14, the best record in the West. The Thunder are 40-7 at home and 59-31-4 against the spread overall. They handled the Nuggets in a blowout 125-93 win in Game 7 to close out the second round. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 35 points in that game and continues to lead the team in the playoffs.
Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 29.0 points, 6.4 assists, and 5.9 rebounds during the postseason. He has scored at least 27 points in eight of 11 playoff games. Jalen Williams is adding support with 24 points and 7 assists in Game 7, and Chet Holmgren posted a double-double with 13 points and 11 rebounds.
Oklahoma City leads all playoff teams with a 101.6 defensive rating. The Thunder are also holding opponents to just 43.3% shooting and 34.0% from three-point range. They are one of the best at forcing turnovers and rank first in the playoffs with 17.2 opponent turnovers per game. Isaiah Hartenstein has provided solid rim protection and rebounding off the bench.
MIN Preview – Well Rested and Ready
Minnesota went 49-33 in the regular season and is 57-35 overall. They have gone 20-8 straight up in their last 28 road games and are 47-44-1 against the spread. The Timberwolves wrapped up their second-round series in five games and have had six days of rest. They beat the Warriors by double digits in the final two games of that series.
Anthony Edwards is averaging 26.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 5.9 assists in the playoffs. He had a big Game 5 against Golden State and continues to lead the Timberwolves in scoring. Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert are also key contributors. Gobert missed most of the games against Oklahoma City this season but brings strong defense and rebounding.
The Timberwolves rank second in defensive rating this postseason at 106.8. They’re also top-five in opponent field goal percentage and rank fourth in three-point shooting at 37.5%. Minnesota has covered the fourth quarter spread in 41 of its last 63 games and has hit the team total over in 37 of its last 56 games. Nickeil Alexander-Walker could play a big role defensively against his cousin Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Betting Prediction
Oklahoma City is listed as a 7.5-point favorite at home with the total at 217.0. The Thunder are 35-10 on their home floor this season and have been a strong first-half team, hitting the 1H moneyline in 28 of their last 33 games. But the quick turnaround from Sunday’s Game 7 may leave them less fresh than Minnesota, who has been off since Wednesday.
Minnesota has been strong in road playoff games and has shown they can slow down elite guards. Their defense and extra rest could help keep this game close. Oklahoma City is the better overall team, but the Timberwolves match up well and could cover the spread. Predicted final score: Thunder 109, Timberwolves 106.
Pick: Minnesota +7.5
