The New York Liberty and Phoenix Mercury play a winner-take-all Game 3 on Friday night at PHX Arena. Tip-off is set for 9:00 PM ET. Both teams finished the regular season 27-17, and now only one will advance to face the Minnesota Lynx in the next round. The Mercury evened the series after dominating Game 2 on the road 86-60, while New York had taken Game 1 in overtime, 76-69.
New York entered the playoffs as defending champions but now faces elimination on the road. Phoenix is aiming for its first playoff series win since 2021, when it made a run to the WNBA Finals. The matchup has already been physical, with defense shaping both results so far. Each team has shown a very different style in their wins, making Game 3 unpredictable.
NYL Preview – Offense Must Find a Rhythm
New York averages 83.7 points per game, ranking sixth in the league, while shooting 44.9% from the field. They have been efficient at the free throw line at 82.9%, the best mark in the WNBA. Their ball movement is strong at 21.6 assists per game, but turnovers have been a problem, with 14.0 per contest. In the playoffs, their offense has slowed down against Phoenix’s pressure.
Breanna Stewart remains the key question for New York. She sprained her MCL in Game 1 but played through the injury in Game 2, finishing with just six points and two rebounds in 20 minutes. That was her lowest scoring output in 45 postseason games. The Liberty need her closer to full strength if they want to avoid elimination. Jonquel Jones has carried some of the load with rebounding, pulling down 13 boards in Game 2, but the team cannot win without Stewart scoring in double figures.
Sabrina Ionescu had a tough night in Game 2, scoring only nine points on 3-of-13 shooting. When Stewart struggles, New York relies heavily on Ionescu’s perimeter game, but she could not break through Phoenix’s defense. Natasha Cloud and Leonie Fiebich also had quiet games, combining for just 10 points. The Liberty will need more production from their supporting players to keep up with Phoenix’s balanced attack.
PHX Preview – Defense Leading the Way
Phoenix controlled Game 2 with defense and ball movement. After a tied first quarter, the Mercury outscored New York 61-35 across the final three quarters. They forced 15 Liberty turnovers and converted them into 25 points. The Mercury also held New York to 2-for-15 shooting in the third quarter, turning the game into a blowout.
Offensively, Phoenix spread the scoring around. Satou Sabally and Alyssa Thomas each had 15 points, while Kahleah Copper and DeWanna Bonner added 14 apiece. Kathryn Westbeld chipped in 10, giving the Mercury five double-digit scorers. They shot 47.9% from the field, a huge improvement from Game 1 when they shot just 32.5%. If Phoenix continues to get efficient looks across the lineup, they will be tough to stop at home.
The Mercury also lean on their home-court advantage. They were 15-8 at PHX Arena in the regular season, one of the better home records in the league. Phoenix’s defense ranks near the top in multiple categories, including holding opponents to 42.4% shooting and 31.8% from three. They also average 7.5 steals per game, and Sabally has been key with her length disrupting passing lanes. If Phoenix maintains defensive intensity and balanced scoring, they have the edge in Game 3.
Key Matchups to Watch
The biggest matchup is Breanna Stewart versus Phoenix’s frontcourt. If Stewart can play closer to her usual level, New York has a strong chance to pull the upset. But if she is limited again, Phoenix’s Sabally and Thomas could dominate the interior battle.
Another factor is perimeter shooting. New York shoots 35.1% from deep, second-best in the league, but went cold in Game 2. Ionescu’s shooting from outside will play a major role in stretching Phoenix’s defense. On the other side, Copper and Bonner can hit timely shots to keep momentum at home.
Rebounding will also be crucial. Jonquel Jones gives New York an edge on the glass, but Phoenix has been solid with Thomas and Sabally combining for strong rebounding numbers. If the Mercury can keep Jones off the boards, they will limit New York’s second-chance points.
Betting Prediction
The line sits at Phoenix -2.5 with the total at 155.5. Phoenix has gone 22-23-1 ATS this season while New York is 16-28-2. The Under has hit in seven of the last ten meetings, including both games in this series. Both teams have played at a slower pace with defense taking over, which makes the Under appealing again.
Phoenix has the momentum and home-court advantage. With Stewart not at full strength, the Liberty offense may not have enough firepower to win on the road. Phoenix should control the pace with defense and balanced scoring. Predicted score: Mercury 78, Liberty 73. That gives Phoenix the cover and the Under hitting again.
Pick: Mercury -2.5 and Under 155.5
