The Minnesota Lynx return home to Target Center on Thursday night to take on the Washington Mystics. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00PM ET. Minnesota comes in at 14-2 and sits first in the Western Conference. Washington is 8-9 and in fourth place in the East.
This is the second meeting of the season between these teams. Washington won the first matchup 68-64 at home on June 24. Napheesa Collier did not play in that game. She will be available this time as Minnesota looks to bounce back after losing the Commissioner’s Cup title game to Indiana earlier this week.
Washington enters the night as an 11.5-point underdog. The total is set at 156.5. Minnesota is 8-1 at home and has one of the best defenses in the league. Washington has played better lately but is just 3-6 on the road and 7-10 to the under this season.
The Mystics have won three of their last five games and are starting to find rhythm with a mix of young players and veterans. The Lynx had won seven straight before their loss to Indiana. Both teams are coming off games where they struggled to shoot efficiently. This matchup will test both defenses again.
Lynx Preview – Back to Work After Cup Loss
The Lynx lost their last game 74-59 against the Indiana Fever in the Commissioner’s Cup final. They were outscored 18-0 to close the second quarter and never recovered. It was just their second loss of the year. Minnesota went 8-1 at home in the first half of the season.
Star forward Napheesa Collier leads the Lynx in scoring with 24.4 points per game. She also grabs 8.5 rebounds and plays a big role on both ends. Kayla McBride and Courtney Williams are next in scoring with 15.8 and 12.9 points per game. The team plays through Collier often and uses defense to control pace.
Statistically, Minnesota is the top defensive team in the league. They allow just 74.1 points per game and hold opponents to 40.2% shooting. The Lynx rank first in blocks, first in assist-to-turnover ratio, and third in steals. They are also top three in both offensive and defensive rebounds per game.
The Lynx average 79.2 points on offense. They do most of their damage in the second half, where they rank first in scoring in both the third and fourth quarters. Their slow starts have not hurt them often, but it’s something to watch if Washington builds an early lead. The Lynx are also second in three-point defense and rarely allow easy looks.
Mystics Preview – Hoping to Build Off Recent Wins
Washington has quietly played well over the past two weeks. The Mystics have won three of their last four games, including a road win over Minnesota back on June 24. They are coming off a 79-71 road loss to Dallas but had four days of rest leading into this matchup.
Brittney Sykes leads the Mystics with 18.6 points per game. Rookie guard Sonia Citron is second at 15.1 points per game and had 22 points and 10 rebounds in the loss to Dallas. Kiki Iriafen adds 12.9 points and gives them another young scoring option. All three have played big minutes with some key injuries in the backcourt.
Washington’s offense ranks 10th in the league at 79.2 points per game. They are not a strong three-point shooting team, ranking last in made threes per game. Instead, the Mystics rely on drawing fouls. They lead the league in free throw attempts per game and make 18.5 per game, which ranks first overall.
Defensively, Washington is average, giving up 78.9 points per game. They are 12th in field goal attempts allowed but force turnovers and limit second-chance points. The Mystics are third in blocks and fifth in steals. Their defense kept them in the game the last time they played Minnesota, and they will need a similar effort Thursday to stay close.
Betting Prediction
Minnesota is a double-digit favorite for good reason. The Lynx are one of the best home teams in the league, and they are coming off a loss they want to forget. Napheesa Collier didn’t play in the last meeting, and her presence should have a big impact. Washington has played well recently but is just 3-6 on the road.
The Mystics may cover the spread if they get to the free throw line often and keep the pace slow. But the Lynx are the top defensive team in the WNBA and should be better prepared after their loss to Indiana. Look for Minnesota to control the boards and limit easy baskets. The total has gone under in seven of the last nine meetings, and that trend should continue.
Pick: Minnesota -11.5
