The line in the May 8th AL free pick seems a bit strange as Minnesota is just -108 on the ML (TOR -102). The Twins have won the first two games in this weekday series by a combined score of 11-0. Minnesota has built up a 4 game lead in the Central while Toronto has dropped 7 of their last 10. Does this tilt say “trap” or should bettors just take the value on Minnesota and be happy with it?
Twins Playing Good Baseball Lately
Minnesota dropped 2 of 3 to the Yankees last weekend but overall Rocco Baldelli’s team has put together a nice little run on the season and especially recently. The Twins took 3 out of 4 vs. Houston last week and are on the verge of a sweep in a tough road swing to Toronto. Minnesota’s offense has looked very solid, scoring at least 6 runs in 4 of 7. Jorge Polanco, Nelson Cruz, and Mitch Garver have all had 3 hit games so far in the series vs. the Jays and Eddie Rosario had 3 RBI on Monday. It’s looking like the Minnesota offense can hurt an opponent in a variety of ways right now (O/U 9).
For as solid as the Twins hitters have been lately, their pitching and defense has been immaculate this series, not allowing a single run to the Blue Jays on consecutive nights. Kyle Gibson will try to run that SO streak to three games as he takes the mound in the May 8th AL free pick. The right-hander is in the groove as he has held opponents to 2 ER or less in three straight starts. With the Jays offense sputtering, Gibson should be solid on Wednesday night.
Toronto Searches for Some Offense…Any Offense
The Blue Jays have been held off the scoreboard so far in this series and poor offensive performance seems to be the norm for Toronto lately. The Blue Jays have been held to 2 runs or less in 5 of the last 6 games and have scored more than 3 just once in the last eight tilts. There’s only three Toronto everyday players hitting above .235 in the past week and the Blue Jays have lost 4 straight vs. RH starters. That being said, Toronto did score 4 ER off Gibson on April 16th but have a collective .200 team BA vs. the Twins starter in 45 total AB.
It’s hard to envision the Blue Jays bats suddenly coming to life in the May 8th AL free pick which means Trent Thornton is going to have to be great on the hill. The right-hander is still looking for his first win of the season through 7 starts but he’s pitched very well as of late. Thornton has given up just 1ER total in his last two starts (12 IP) and only 3 hits over that span. The Jays starter allowed 13 ER in three starts prior however including giving up 4 to Minnesota on April 17th.
May 8th AL Free Pick Betting
Minnesota -108 seems like bait which means that Thornton could actually continue his impressive run. The Twins have momentum, but are also in a getaway day and have Thursday off before a 4-game home set vs. Detroit (double-header Saturday). The Blue Jays offense doesn’t scare anybody in this one either though so low scoring is the play.
AL Free Pick: Twins / Blue Jays *Under* 9
