With #1 Alabama’s loss this week to Tennessee, Sunday’s Memphis at Houston betting matchup could be a big one for the #2 Cougars to prove they are the worthy new top team in the nation. Houston (24-2) comes into this contest on a six game win streak and are whopping -13.5 favorites.
Memphis (20-6) has won 8 of their last 9, and the only loss over that span came in OT to Tulane 90-89. The Tigers took two of three in the head to head series last season and will look to continue that trend when these two teams meet up for the first time in 2023.
Why Memphis Can Cover +13.5
The Tigers aren’t trying to just cover in the Memphis at Houston betting matchup, they want the outright win like they got last year in a 69-59 win at the Fertitta Center as +10 point underdogs when the Cougars were ranked #6 in the country. The Tigers also won 75-61 over UH back at home last year as +2.5 underdogs before losing 71-53 in the AAC Championship Game.
The Tigers can match up well with Houston based on their past results, and the Tigers (10-3 in AAC) essentially control their own destiny in the conference trailing the 12-1 Cougars with two games yet to play.
Houston has the top defense in the AAC as well as the country allowing just 55.4 ppg. Memphis also has the top scoring offense in the conference (80.5) ppg led by 21.3 ppg from Kendric Davis which is 12th most in the nation. Davis is also questionable on Sunday though after hurting his ankle in the one point win over UCF on Thursday.
Why Houston Can Cover -13.5
The fact that the Cougars are -13.5 favorites on Sunday would suggest that Davis will in fact not play for Memphis, or at the very least not have a full minutes load. Davis is the Tigers’ most consistent scorer going for 20+ points in 9 straight until his injury this week.
Memphis still has Deandre Williams who scores 17.3 ppg but the swarming Houston defense can really play downhill if Davis is out. The Cougars seem to be surging towards the #1 spot in the country, winning their last three games by at least 15 points while holding opponents to 57.3 ppg.
What makes the Cougars able to cover the -13.5 is not just that their defense allows the fewest points in the nation, but also because their offense is ranked 4th in adjusted efficiency as well. Marcus Sasser scores 16.5 ppg and is averaging 22.5 ppg over his last two.
Free Memphis at Houston Betting Pick
This game is a tough one to handicap with Davis likely being a gametime decision for Memphis, but Tigers coach Penny Hardaway has called him, “a tough kid” so it would be a shocker if he guts it out in this spot.
Memphis obviously gets up for Houston as evidenced by their regular season sweep last year. It’s tough to bank on a blowout, and the points are too may in this matchup.
Free Pick: Memphis Tigers +13.5
