The Marlins rarely seem look a solid wager considering their spot 39-62 on the year with a 20.5 game deficit in the NL East. That being said Miami has quietly put together a 3-game win streak including Friday night’s 3-2 series opener vs. the Diamondbacks. Arizona is favored in the July 27th MLB betting free pick at -126, but can Miami continue to play with confidence and be the better play at +112?
D’Backs Blew Series Opener Friday
Arizona was in a good spot on Friday with a 2-1 lead heading into the 9th inning at Marlins Park. That was before struggling closer Greg Holland (who was pulled in the 9th on Wednesday) gave up 2 runs for a 3-2 Marlins win. The loss dropped the mediocre Diamondbacks to 5-5 in their last 10 and an even 52-52 on the season. The D’Backs have also proven a very risky team to wager on when they lay a lemon like this losing as -185 favorites vs. Miami and recently dropping a 2-7 decision to Baltimore on Tuesday as -181.
Arizona has some real bullpen questions heading into the July 27th MLB betting free pick, can their starter Alex Young relieve some of those concerns? Saturday marks the left-handers 5th ever major league start and he’s coming off the worst start of his short career with 4 ER allowed in 4.0 IP to Milwaukee. Prior to that though, the 25-year-old had been pretty stellar allowing just 2ER total in the three previous starts. Oddsmakers are expecting a bounce back outing with an O/U of just 7.5.
Can the Marlins Snag Another W?
Miami has put together a three game winning streak that also includes two wins over the White Sox in addition to Friday’s 9th inning comeback. The Marlins have gone 5-5 over their last 10 which is impressive considering their offense continues to be pretty bad. Miami is 29th in the league in runs/game and has been held to 3 runs or less in 6 of the last 9. Miguel Rojas (.364) is the only Marlins regular batter hitting above .250 over the past week. No batter in Saturday night’s game has even 1 plate appearance vs. the opposing starter.
The Marlins have scored just 5 runs total in the last two games yet they’ve won them both. That’s a testament to their game plan – get solid pitching and try to sneak out a win late. Jordan Yamamoto will try to keep that strategy in play as he gets the starting nod on Saturday. The right-hander dealt with his first dose of MLB floundering in his last start, allowing 5ER to 4 IP to the Dodgers. In all six of his major league starts prior, Yamamoto had held opponents to 2 ER or less. Another reason why this tilt is listed with such a low total of 7.5.
Top Trends:
- Diamondbacks are 4-1 last 5 following a loss
- Marlins are 3-7 last 10 vs. LH starter
- Marlins are 5-2 in Yamamoto’s last 7 starts
- Diamondbacks are 7-2 last 9 meetings
July 27th MLB Betting Pick
Arizona has done a good job of bouncing back from a loss, it’s one of the reasons they are .500 on the year. Miami has been getting little to no offense but still manages to win games as of late. Young has been solid on the road for Arizona with a 1.42 ERA with starts at the Dodgers and Giants. Yamamoto has a 2.25 ERA in 3 starts at Marlins Park this year. We should be looking at another 3-2 or 2-1 game here, it’s just hard to know which side prevails.
MLB Free Pick: Diamondbacks / Marlins *Under* 7.5
