The best thing for Jacksonville in the Titans at Jaguars betting matchup is that the schedule does not say the San Francisco 49ers. The Jags’ were riding high on momentum with a five game win streak, but got a dose of reality last Sunday in a 34-3 beating from the Niners.
The Titans are getting +6.5 points in this matchup which seems on the low side for a team that has lost four of their last five games. Tennessee did cover the number in Duval County last year though, losing 20-16 as +6 point underdogs and had won five straight over the Jaguars before being swept in 2022.
Why the Titans Have Value at +6.5
The big question heading into Sunday’s matchup is if the Jaguars were exposed last week in a 30+ point loss to San Francisco – or if the 49ers are just that good. Jacksonville managed just 59 yards rushing, 162 yards passing, and QB Trevor Lawrence had his first multi-interception game of the season.
The Tennessee defense now has a game plan to follow for this week, and the Titans defense really hasn’t been their problem this season. Tennessee gives up just 20.0 points/game which is 10th best in the NFL their issue is their offense which puts up a mere 17.1 ppg.
Will Levis makes his fourth NFL start on Sunday, and he’s had the typical ups and downs that a rookie will face. Levis threw 4 TDs in his debut against the Falcons, but hasn’t got one since. The good news is that he gets to face a Jacksonville defense that ranks 30th in the NFL allowing 266.8 pass yards/game.
Why Jacksonville Has Value at -6.5
The best thing to do is just throw last Sunday’s game out the window, because it turns out the 49ers are actually really good. Instead focus on this being a Jaguars team that had won five straight prior and had some nice momentum going. Not to mention, that five game win streak included two games in London and road wins at New Orleans and at Pittsburgh so this was also a club that was a little bit jet lagged.
Now the Jaguars play their second straight home game and have had a chance to get their energy back up a bit for the home stretch of the season. On Sunday they also get a Titans team that is 0-5 on the road this season and is playing their third straight contest away from home. We could see a fatigued squad that looks a lot like Jacksonville did last weekend.
Lawrence should be much better this week not having to face the aggressive San Francisco pass rush that sacked him 5 times. Tennessee ranks last in the league in takeaways (6), and is middle of the pack in sacks (24).
Free Week 11 Titans at Jaguars Betting Pick
It’s up to the Titans defense if they cover this matchup, because the Tennessee offense has been held to 16 points or less in four of their last five. With the Titans playing a third straight road game, fatigue is going to set in here and the Jaguars run away with this one in a big way.
Free Pick: Jaguars -6.5